TEXAS — Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico led incumbent Sen. John Cornyn 44% to 41% and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 46% to 41% in a Texas Public Opinion Research poll of likely general election voters. The survey of 1,018 likely voters was conducted from April 17 to April 20, 2026, and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Talarico, a Democratic state legislator, won the party's U.S. Senate nomination in March 2026. Cornyn has served in the U.S. Senate since 2002 and is in his fourth consecutive term. Paxton was impeached in 2023 following misconduct charges.

The poll found that Talarico's lead was heavily driven by support from Black, Latino and college-educated voters. Among Black voters, he led Cornyn by 51 percentage points and Paxton by 56 percentage points. Among Latino voters, he led Cornyn by 32 percentage points and Paxton by 27 percentage points.

Among independent voters, Talarico led Cornyn 51% to 29% and led Paxton 53% to 28%. The Cook Political Report classifies the Texas Senate seat as likely Republican.

No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. In the 2018 Texas U.S. Senate election, Beto O'Rourke came within three percentage points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in a March 2026 primary, setting up a general election contest in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide offices for more than three decades.

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the 100-seat U.S. Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in November 2026 to retake control of the chamber.