The average 30-year mortgage interest rate in the United States stood at 6% on April 27, 2026, according to Zillow, after climbing through the spring as inflation concerns and the conflict in Iran pushed yields higher. The April reading was above the mid-February level but below a March peak of 6.37% reached on March 23.

The average 30-year rate was 5.87% in February 2026, with qualified borrowers obtaining rates close to 5%. The March 23 level represented an increase of more than half a percentage point from mid-February. Ceasefire talks in the Iran conflict subsequently calmed the bond market and lowered the 10-year Treasury yield.

"The lesson from this spring is that affordability gains are fragile. Rates can give back weeks of improvement in a matter of days if risk sentiment shifts," said Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality.

No Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for May 2026, and the central bank's late-April rate decision is already reflected in current mortgage rates. The CME Group FedWatch tool indicates a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged in May. Inflation data and Middle East ceasefire talks are the primary factors expected to influence the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates, and pressure on the yield could continue to ease if the ceasefire holds.

Hepp projected a range-bound May. "My forecast for May is that rates will remain range-bound with a slight downward bias, likely fluctuating between 6.2% and 6.4%. However, I believe that rate volatility will persist," she said.

Sarah DeFlorio, vice president of mortgage banking at William Raveis Mortgage, forecast the average 30-year rate would land between 6.125% and 6.25% by the end of May. "My hope is that during May 2026, we will experience another period of stability, slowly declining rates. Sadly, we know from experience it's never a straight line down," she said. DeFlorio added: "If and when the end of the conflict in Iran is announced, I think we will see an immediate dip in rates."

Jordan Del Palacio, loan partner at Churchill Mortgage, tied recent rate movements to oil markets. "As the cost of crude fell and it appeared there were building blocks of an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, rates declined," he said. "With the latest break in the ceasefire, the cost has increased about 8% from the recent low, and mortgage rates have increased in tandem," Del Palacio said. He also said: "Even on good days, there is a cautiousness built into the rate environment, and we won't see rates come back down until there is more certainty about a resolution in the Iran conflict." Del Palacio estimated: "If I had to look into my crystal ball, I would probably estimate that the average 30-year mortgage rate will be around 6.50% by the end of May."

Bond yields must remain under 4% for mortgage rates to decline. Hepp warned: "That could lead to another bond spike. If the 10-year Treasury breaks back above 4.50%, the 30-year mortgage rate will head straight back toward 6.75% or higher, effectively ending the spring homebuying momentum."

Homebuyers should shop and compare at least three lenders to find the best available rate and terms. Lenders often offer rate locks for 30, 45, or 60 days to protect borrowers from increases during the home search, and some offer a float-down option that allows borrowers to lock a rate and later lower it if rates fall before closing.