WASHINGTON, D.C. — A surge in bets on the US oil price occurred between 10:48 and 10:50 GMT on 23 March 2026, minutes before President Donald Trump posted on X that Washington had held productive conversations with Tehran. Oil prices dropped by 11% at 11:05 GMT, one minute after the post.

Trump's message, published at 11:04 GMT, described the discussions as aimed at a complete and total resolution to hostilities. Contracts for Brent crude also spiked in the period before the post.

BBC analysis of trade volume data across several financial markets found spikes in trading volume hours or minutes before Trump's market-moving statements. Traders placed millions of dollars of bets just before major announcements by the president during his second term.

The 23 March trading activity fits a pattern identified in the BBC analysis. The surge in US oil futures contracts between 10:48 and 10:50 GMT came approximately 14 minutes before Trump's post on X and approximately 15 minutes before the 11% drop in oil prices recorded at 11:05 GMT. Brent crude contracts similarly recorded a spike before the post was published.