VIRGINIA — Republicans said they have a fighting chance to defeat a redistricting referendum in Virginia scheduled for April 21, 2026, an outcome they said could help tip the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives in the fall midterm elections. The measure will be decided in a special election that day.

"It's a neck-and-neck, 50-50 fight right now," Rep. John McGuire said.

Among likely voters in the referendum, 52% said they supported it and 47% said they opposed it, a result within the poll's margin of error. A recent poll also showed that Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters were more likely to cast ballots in the April 21 referendum than Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters.

Republicans have asked House Speaker Mike Johnson, former Governor Glenn Youngkin, and members of Congress to campaign against the referendum in the final stretch of the race. Virginians for Fair Maps is the primary group opposing the referendum, while Virginians for Fair Elections is the main group supporting it.

"We have a lot of momentum on our side. And as the funding has come in, we've been able to do more educating, more outreach to voters," Rep. Jen Kiggans said.

Democrats hold a 3-to-1 ad spending advantage over Republicans heading into the vote. Total Democratic spending in the race through Friday reached $49.1 million, compared with $17.2 million for Republicans. As of Friday, Virginians for Fair Elections had spent $48.2 million, while Virginians for Fair Maps had spent $14.1 million. On March 21, Virginians for Fair Elections had spent 17 times as much on ads as Virginians for Fair Maps, according to AdImpact. Most spending on both sides has come from dark money groups that are not required to disclose their donors.

In the November 2025 election in Virginia, Democrats won every statewide office on the ballot and expanded their legislative majority.