An anonymous trader on the prediction market platform Polymarket made approximately $300,000 by correctly betting on a series of last-minute pardons issued by President Joe Biden in the final hours of his term, according to an analysis by Paris-based analytics firm Bubblemaps. The five successful wagers netted the trader $316,346 in profits, the firm found.

The trader placed around $64,000 worth of bets that Biden would issue pre-emptive pardons for Jim Biden, Liz Cheney, Adam Schiff, and Adam Kinzinger — none of whom had been charged with crimes. Biden granted the pardons to shield the four from possible prosecution in President Donald Trump's second term, according to the analysis. About a month earlier, the same trader had wagered that Hunter Biden would receive a pardon over gun and tax charges.

Investigators at Bubblemaps used pattern-matching artificial intelligence software to analyze Polymarket trades related to Biden's pardons. They discovered two accounts with a perfect track record of betting on the pardons, and both accounts sent their profits to the same cryptocurrency wallet on the Kraken exchange. Kraken is a U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange that requires customers to verify their identities under know-your-customer rules.

Columbia Law School professor Joshua Mitts, who advises the Department of Justice on insider trading cases, said the pattern of successful bets was striking. "The odds of this happening by random chance are virtually zero," Mitts said. He added: "The trader could've been a White House insider. But the trader could have possessed the information without being an insider."

Mitts published a paper in March 2026 estimating that bettors with insider information have earned $143 million in profits on Polymarket. In a podcast interview, he said: "If the government subpoenas, and gets data back showing some entity did the trading that has no connections to the White House, that's where the trail runs cold."

The Biden pardon bets are not the only Polymarket wagers that have drawn attention. Hours before Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was toppled by U.S. forces in January, a Polymarket trader placed a bet that netted $400,000. A group of new accounts on the platform made hundreds of thousands of dollars by betting that the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire before an agreement was unveiled. Israeli authorities arrested several people in a case alleging that military reservists traded on Polymarket using classified military intelligence. U.S. prosecutors have not announced any investigations or charges over potential insider trading related to prediction market bets.

Polymarket uses cryptocurrency, unlike its main rival Kalshi, making it easier for traders to remain anonymous. Under Biden, the Federal Bureau of Investigation raided the home of Polymarket's CEO and forced the site to wind down U.S. operations. The platform continues to operate mostly as an overseas exchange, with its main site accessible by Americans only via a virtual private network. Prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi have grown during Trump's second term, and investment firm Bernstein projects the industry could reach $1 trillion over the next four years.