U.S. ground beef prices reached $6.70 per pound in March, up nearly 16% from a year earlier, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that beef prices will climb more than 10% in 2026 and perhaps by as much as 18%.

Beef steak prices also rose 16% year-over-year in March, reaching $12.73 per pound. Ground beef cost as little as $3.96 a pound in 2021, and a decade ago it averaged $3.75 per pound.

Derrell Peel, professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, said the conditions do not point toward lower prices. "There is nothing to suggest any relief from high beef prices," Peel said.

The number of beef cows in the United States fell to fewer than 28 million in January, down 1% from the year prior and the lowest level since the 1960s, according to USDA data. In 2022, a drought hit the western U.S., a key region for beef production. The USDA said that worsening drought conditions have reduced the amount of pasture for cattle to graze, forcing ranchers to turn to more costly feed and, in some cases, to cull their herds.

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine pushed up feed costs and made it more expensive to maintain cattle, according to David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University. "I would expect beef prices to remain high for the remainder of this year and potentially into next year as well," Ortega said.

Data from NielsenIQ, which aggregates sales data from U.S. grocery stores, dollar stores and other retailers, showed that as of late March, unit sales for beef were down 4% year-over-year while dollar sales were up 8%. "Demand for beef has not diminished," Andrew Coppin, CEO of Ranchbot, said.

Ranchers are slaughtering fewer cattle and increasing the number of female beef cows, according to USDA data. "High prices are what signal producers to rebuild the herd and expand supply," Ortega said.

The Consumer Price Index in March increased 3.3% from a year ago. As of March, U.S. food prices overall had risen nearly 20% from January 2022.