CRAFTSBURY COMMON, VT. — Sterling College, a small institution in Craftsbury Common, Vermont, that uses a 130-acre farm to teach agriculture and other disciplines, will close at the end of this semester in May. The school is the seventh private college in Vermont to close since 2016 and is part of a broader pattern of private college closures projected to accelerate over the next decade.

A forecast by Huron Consulting Group estimates that 442 of the nation's 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges and universities, enrolling a combined 670,000 students, are at risk of closing or merging within the next 10 years. More than 120 of those institutions are at the highest risk, according to the forecast, which was based on analysis of enrollment trends, tuition revenue, assets, debt, cash on hand, and other financial measures.

"We have too many seats. We have too many classrooms. So over the coming five to 10 years, this shakeout is going to take place." Huron Consulting Group managing director Peter Stokes said.

Sterling College was founded in 1958 as a preparatory school for boys and is one of nine work colleges in the United States where undergraduates combine work and learning. Its enrollment peaked at 120 students and declined to about 40 in the current year. Financial documents indicate that the college had been breaking even but operated with thin financial margins. The school provided students with a final semester to complete degrees or transfer before closing, rather than shutting immediately.

Izzy Johnson, a 20-year-old student studying agricultural and food systems at Sterling, said: "Having to pick up everything and find a new place to settle down is really miserable." Many students are working to earn the credits needed to graduate this spring.

Fewer than half of students at colleges that close continue their education, according to a study by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association. Among those who do continue, many lose credits they have earned, and fewer than half eventually earn degrees.

In its final semester, Sterling held weekly community meetings where attendees formed a circle to discuss routine business such as warnings of bears coming out of hibernation and reminders to share contact information for after commencement. Liz Chadwick, a food systems instructor who moved from New Jersey in 2013 to attend Sterling and stayed on to teach, said: "We always joke that Sterling kids stick around. But it's true, they do, and they contribute to the community." "They build families here." she added.

The total number of U.S. colleges and universities has declined from a peak of 4,726 in 2012 to approximately 3,700 two- and four-year public and private degree-granting institutions. Almost all colleges that closed since 2012 have been private, for-profit institutions. U.S. college enrollment has fallen by 2.3 million students since 2010, and a drop in the birthrate that began around 2010 is projected to cause a further decline in the number of 18-year-olds through at least 2041.