Midwest soybean farmers face the prospect of a second consecutive year of negative returns in the 2026 crop season, as elevated input costs, fallout from the U.S.-China trade war and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to erode profit margins. Even after a $12 billion federal aid package rolled out in December 2025, soybean farmers lost almost $75 per harvested acre in the 2025 crop, according to the American Soybean Association.

"A lot of producers are pretty nervous going into this year. It looks like we're going to have another year of negative returns." said Justin Sherlock, president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association.

Paul Mitchell, a professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said farmers are under acute financial pressure. "They're very concerned about negative margins driven by low prices and high cost. There's just a liquidity cash crunch for a lot of them and they're just trying to figure out how to deal with everything."

Operating costs for U.S. soybean production have remained elevated since 2020 and are projected to increase again in 2026, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Some farmers also perceive price gouging by suppliers.

The Trump administration levied tariffs on soybeans in April 2025, and China responded with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans, cutting off a major export market and driving prices lower. The two countries reached a trade deal in late 2025 under which Beijing committed to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans by January and at least 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years. China met its initial purchase goal.

On Feb. 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, causing a severe slowdown in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption sharply increased oil prices and largely stopped exports of nitrogen fertilizers manufactured in the Persian Gulf while limiting access to key fertilizer ingredients. The price of urea, the most widely traded nitrogen fertilizer, increased sharply. A ceasefire deal announced on April 7, 2026, raised hopes the bottlenecks would ease, but the agreement's future remained uncertain as of mid-April.

Doug Bartek, chairman of the Nebraska Soybean Association, operates a 2,000-acre farm near Wahoo, Nebraska, where he rents three-quarters of his cropland. "Our biggest struggles are our inputs, be it fertilizer, seed, chemical, parts. There has been so much drastic markup in all of these. And I just kind of feel like the farmer's kind of painted in the corner." He added that rising land rents have compounded the pressure. "There's a lot of what I call absentee landowners that have absolutely no idea what goes on on the farm. All they know is their taxes went up and you get to make up the difference, some way, somehow."