Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
Oil tankers remain stranded in the Gulf.
Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence80%
The US and Iran failed to reach a peace deal after marathon negotiations.
JD Vance, US vice-president
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence90%
JD Vance blamed the collapse of the talks on Tehran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme.
JD Vance, US vice-president
Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence90%
JD Vance left Islamabad on Sunday morning after 21 hours of talks with Iranian officials.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The war began on 28 February with US and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence85%
IG’s weekend US crude oil market predicted oil prices would open at about $98 a barrel on Sunday night, UK time, up from about $96.50 a barrel on Friday night.
Tony Sycamore, Market analyst at IG Australia
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Tony Sycamore said: "Unless a sudden U-turn emerges, energy markets are set for a rocky open when regular trading resumes tomorrow morning."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence85%
JPMorgan Chase analysts expect oil prices to stay above $100 a barrel in the second quarter before easing in the second half of the year.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday after a two-week ceasefire was announced.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Brent crude ended the week at $94.26 a barrel.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Brent crude peaked at $119.45 a barrel during the war.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Brent crude was about $72 a barrel before the war began.
Donald Trump, President of the United States
Relevance: primary · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Donald Trump said: "BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz".
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was part of the truce agreed on Wednesday.
Mohamed El-Erian, Adviser to Allianz and former president of Queens’ College, University of Cambridge
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence85%
Mohamed El-Erian said uncertainty would continue to dominate assessments of the war’s financial impact.
Mohamed El-Erian, Adviser to Allianz and former president of Queens’ College, University of Cambridge
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
While both parties stressed that a quick agreement was too much to hope for given the issues involved, neither readily indicated the next step – something the whole world will be focused on, especially as Israel’s attacks on Lebanon continued throughout the weekend.
Mohamed El-Erian, Adviser to Allianz and former president of Queens’ College, University of Cambridge
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Absent a swift resumption of negotiations, the immediate reaction of financial markets when they open for the trading week will be to push oil prices higher and borrowing costs higher. The extent of the sell-off in the stock market, where investors have been consistently more optimistic than in other asset classes, will depend on whether they see a viable path to further diplomacy. For the UK, all this translates into another hit to the cost of living and less flexibility for both fiscal and monetary policy responses.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
A two-week truce between the US and Iran was agreed on Wednesday, brokered by Pakistan.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence85%
Global stock markets rebounded after the temporary ceasefire was announced.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence85%
By the end of the week, the S&P 500 was near its level before the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence85%
By the end of the week, the S&P 500 was flat year-to-date.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Saudi Arabia announced that its east-west oil pipeline and other facilities had been restored following attacks by Iran on infrastructure across the Gulf.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The attacks led to a loss of approximately 700,000 barrels per day of pumping capacity through the east-west pipeline.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Work was under way to restore full production capacity at the Khurais oilfield.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday during the talks in Islamabad.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
These were the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire deal.
Wei Yao, Economist at Société Générale
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Wei Yao said: "Even if the ceasefire frays, the more likely near-term outcome, in our view, is messy non-compliance and low-level retaliation near-term, rather than an immediate return to full-blown escalation. For the global economy, this means lasting disruptions, as oil and LNG flows would normalise only slowly."
Donald Trump, President of the United States
Relevance: primary · Type: quote
Confidence100%
“We don’t need anything they have,” Trump said.
Donald Trump, President of the United States
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence90%
Donald Trump asserted that the United States does not rely on tankers that Iran blocked from passage through the Strait of Hormuz over the past month.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Iran blocked tankers from passage through the Strait of Hormuz for the past month.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Gasoline pump prices across the United States exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time in four years.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
US households paid $8.4 billion more for gasoline over the past month compared to prices before the war on Iran began.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
Under the two-week ceasefire agreement, Iran was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
Most tankers remained blocked while negotiators sparred over deal details.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Iran intends to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz for shipments accounting for 20 percent of global oil and LNG.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
Iran charged tolls for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The US Energy Information Administration said oil prices will remain elevated at least through the end of the year even if the conflict is fully resolved by the end of April.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The United States is the world’s largest oil consumer and the world’s largest oil producer.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
The United States’ reliance on globally traded oil leaves it vulnerable to disruptions in global energy markets.
Kate Gordon, CEO of California Forward and former senior advisor at the Department of Energy
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence90%
Kate Gordon said that to achieve energy independence, the US must dramatically reduce demand for oil.
Jason Bordoff, Professor at Columbia University
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
“The clean energy transition has not eliminated geopolitical risk.”
Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Professor at Harvard University
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
“The clean energy transition has not eliminated geopolitical risk.”
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