BROOKLYN, NEW YORK — The average rate on a conventional 30-year U.S. home loan rose to 6.46% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since September 2025, according to Freddie Mac. The increase reversed a downward trend from late February, when the benchmark rate had dipped below 6%.

The rise in mortgage rates tracked an increase in the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which stood at 4.26% on Thursday, up from 3.96% just before Feb. 28. Mortgage rates tend to track movements in the 10-year Treasury bond.

Economists with PNC Financial Services predicted that mortgage rates will remain elevated above 6%, in part because markets are pricing higher expected inflation into long-term rates. The spring homebuying period coincides with a normal seasonal increase in housing demand, but higher borrowing costs coincide with declining activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 3% on April 1 from a week earlier, and the association downgraded its outlook for home sales, citing expected softer demand.

Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said, "A month ago, our forecast for 2026 was for an 8% increase in home sales compared to 2025." Oxford Economics predicted that the Iran war's effect on the housing market will likely send many buyers and sellers to the sidelines. The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

Jake Krimmel, a senior economist, said President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs raised inflation and recession fears last spring. Krimmel said, "Conditions were forming for improved affordability." He also said, "Nothing is flashing red yet."

For individual buyers, the rate increase has had concrete effects. Devan Post, a 36-year-old corporate controller in Minnesota, was initially quoted a rate of 5.85% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in February. The lender's latest quote to Post was 6.49%. Post and her husband recently put in an offer on another home.

"And then it's like, oh, wait, never mind," Post said.

With a 6.49% rate and a 20% down payment, monthly mortgage payments would be $265 higher than with a 5.85% rate and 20% down, according to Realtor.com. Over the life of a 30-year loan, that additional monthly cost would total approximately $95,400, according to Realtor.com.