WEST TEXAS — The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of West Texas on October 15, 2026. The Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook is valid from 16Z Thursday, October 15, 2026, to 12Z Friday, October 16, 2026.

High neighborhood probabilities above 70 percent exist for rainfall amounts exceeding 5 inches within the Moderate Risk area in West Texas. Areal average quantitative precipitation forecasts between 3 and 5 inches are anticipated along and south of Interstate 10 in West Texas, with maximum rainfall amounts centered over the Lower Pecos River basin between Sanderson and north of Del Rio.

Neighborhood probabilities show a 70 to 100 percent chance of exceeding 3 inches of rain in Terrell County and portions of the Lower Concho Valley, while there is a 50 to 80 percent probability of rainfall exceeding 5 inches in those same areas. Precipitable water anomalies in West Texas and Oklahoma are approaching plus 2 to plus 3 standard deviations above climatology. A more immediate threat for flash flooding exists in Northwest Texas where 3-hour Flash Flood Guidance values have dropped below 0.25 inch in some basins.

The Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was extended west to include portions of eastern Kentucky, where localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches or more are possible. A high pressure center exceeding 1040 mb is forecast to center over Montana by the afternoon of October 15, 2026.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall exists for portions of Central and Southern Florida for Day 2, which is valid from 12Z Friday, October 16, 2026, to 12Z Saturday, October 17, 2026. Precipitable water values in Central and Southern Florida are forecast to reach at or above 2 inches on Friday, October 16, 2026, and probabilities for rainfall accumulations exceeding 3 inches are greater than 50 percent in the Marginal Risk area.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall exists along portions of the Florida East Coast for Day 3, valid from 12Z Saturday, October 17, 2026, to 12Z Sunday, October 18, 2026. The cold front is forecast to be aligned between Melbourne and West Palm Beach by Saturday afternoon, and isolated rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are plausible along the Florida East Coast.

Marginal Risks of excessive rainfall exist for the Gold Coast of Florida on Sunday and portions of the East Coast on Monday. Precipitable water values are forecast to be 1.5 to 2 inches along the Florida East Coast on Sunday. A Marginal Risk was raised for Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia due to potential heavy rainfall near the Outer Banks.