TEXAS — The Texas Tribune published an analysis on October 6, 2026, identifying the most competitive U.S. House and Texas state legislative districts for the upcoming 2026 elections. The evaluation covers 38 U.S. House seats, all 150 seats in the Texas House, and 16 of the 31 seats in the Texas Senate.

The analysis assigned competitiveness ratings to districts, tagging the most competitive battlegrounds as 'hot,' less competitive but potentially mixable districts as 'warm,' and those with lower competition as 'cold.' The assessment considered how each district voted in the 2024 presidential and 2018 U.S. Senate elections, incumbent reelection status, incumbent performance relative to their party’s presidential nominee in 2024, polling trends, and party target identification. Data for previous elections’ margins comes from the Texas Legislative Council, which allows analysis of 2024 and 2018 election results under current district boundaries.

All four of Texas' most competitive U.S. House races are in majority-Hispanic districts across South Texas that voted for President Donald Trump by 10 points or more in 2024. Three of the most competitive U.S. House districts in Texas are among the Democratic seats targeted by the Texas GOP’s redrawn congressional map, which was designed to net the party up to five more seats in the U.S. House.

Under new congressional boundaries, Trump won Texas Districts 28, 34, and 35 each by about 10 points in 2024. Democratic incumbents Rep. Henry Cuellar and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez are running for reelection in Texas U.S. House Districts 28 and 34 respectively. In the 2018 U.S. Senate election, Democratic nominee Beto O’Rourke would have carried the new 28th and 34th Congressional Districts under current boundaries.

Texas U.S. House District 35 is an open seat with no Democratic incumbent running, as Rep. Greg Casar is running in another district. In Texas U.S. House District 35, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz would have beaten Beto O’Rourke by less than half of a percentage point in the 2018 U.S. Senate race under current boundaries. Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is running against Tejano musician Bobby Pulido in the redrawn Texas U.S. House District 15, which now includes southeastern Hidalgo County and part of the Coastal Bend.

Texas U.S. House District 9, which includes the eastern Houston area, and District 23, which runs from San Antonio to the outskirts of El Paso, are competitive races with no incumbent running. Trump would have won Texas U.S. House Districts 9 and 23 by at least 15 points in 2024, but the margins would have been slimmer in the 2018 U.S. Senate race.

At least a dozen Texas House districts are highly competitive, with the majority won by Trump by less than 10 points in 2024. About half of the most competitive Texas House races are in major urban areas or their surrounding suburbs, such as the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio regions. Republicans control an 88-62 majority in the Texas House of Representatives, and Democrats need to flip 14 seats to gain control of the chamber. In the 2018 Texas House elections, Democrats gained 12 seats.

In Texas House District 34 in Corpus Christi, 71% of the eligible voting population is Hispanic. Republican state Rep. Denise Villalobos won Texas House District 34 by a margin of 9.3 points in 2024, outperforming Trump's 1.4-point edge in the district. Stephanie Guerrero Sáenz is the Democratic challenger running against Republican state Rep. Denise Villalobos in Texas House District 34. In the 2018 U.S. Senate election, Beto O’Rourke won Texas House District 34 by 16.5 points.

Democrats are targeting Texas House District 37 in the Rio Grande Valley, which Republican state Rep. Janie Lopez brought under GOP control in 2022. Democrats are also targeting Texas House districts held by Republicans Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button in Dallas County, which each voted for Trump by under 6 points in 2024. Republican incumbent Morgan Meyer faces Democratic challenger Allison Mitchell for a North Dallas state House seat. Meyer is one of only two Republicans from Dallas County in the Texas House, along with Rep. Angie Chen Button of Garland.

Only 16 of the 31 Texas Senate seats are up for election in 2026. The most competitive Texas Senate race is in District 9 in the northern Fort Worth area. Democratic state Sen. Taylor Rehmet won a special election to flip Texas Senate District 9, a district Trump previously won by 17 points.

Taylor Rehmet faces Republican Leigh Wambsganss, his special election opponent, in a rematch for Texas Senate District 9 in November 2026. Texas Senate Districts 19 and 21 along the Mexico border are controlled by Democrats and rated as warm competitiveness. Kamala Harris won Texas Senate District 19 by 1 point and District 21 by 3 points in the 2024 presidential election.

What's New

Ballotpedia published its 16th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzing 6,137 state legislative seats up for election on November 3, 2026, in 46 states. The nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2026 is 35.4, above the average of 34.0 between 2010 and 2024. In 2026, 1,064 state legislative seats are open, representing 17.3% of all seats up for election. The percentage of open state legislative seats in 2026 (17.3%) is down from 23.8% in 2022.

In 2026, 1,156 state legislative incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 22.8% of incumbents. Across the 46 states holding state legislative elections in 2026, 449 Democrat-held seats are open, 610 Republican-held seats are open, and five independent or minor party seats are open. In 2026, 481 Democratic incumbents were contested in primaries, representing 21% of the 2,314 Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election. Republicans are guaranteed to win 813 state legislative seats (13%) that lacked Democratic competition in 2026.