Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence90%
President Donald Trump announced tariffs on many countries on April 2, 2025, which he called Liberation Day.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The tariffs included steep levies on major trading partners such as China and the European Union.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence70%
U.S. trade policy has shifted frequently since the tariffs were announced.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence90%
Retailers like Walmart and Target raised prices to compensate for the tariffs.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence80%
Some consumers received tariff bills in the mail after online shopping.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence90%
Many of the tariffs have since been rolled back, and a February Supreme Court decision struck down some of them.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence90%
After the Supreme Court decision, the administration announced a 10% global tariff that could last 150 days.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The Penn Wharton Budget Model shows how the average effective tariff rate, adjusted for substitutes, has evolved since April 2, 2025.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
The average effective tariff rate jumped in April 2025, then rose monthly before reaching 11% in August 2025 when reciprocal tariffs went fully into effect.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
The average effective tariff rate peaked in October 2025 and has cooled since then while remaining higher in the short run than before the second presidential term began.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
The inflation spike feared in the spring of 2025 was smaller than anticipated, and the overall price of core goods has remained relatively stable over the past year.
Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation for the Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Jason Draho, head of asset allocation for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that tariffs did not cause the massive surge in inflation that people expected but still led prices higher.
Elizabeth Renter, Senior Economist, NerdWallet
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, said that supply chain and demand-driven issues also push up prices.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Gabriel Agostini and Atsi Sheth pointed to individual countries' exchange rates and firms' pricing strategies as factors in how much tariffs affect the prices of various goods.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
In the year before Liberation Day, the prices of core goods excluding food and energy were pulling down broader inflation.
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that tariff policy has shaped interest rate decisions over the past year and that levies are a one-time shock to the economy unlikely to have a multi-year impact.
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Powell said high oil prices due to the Iran war are a much bigger factor in the current inflation story.
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Powell said that the Federal Open Market Committee expects price growth to cool off.
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Powell said, "Not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation."
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Powell said, "It should come as we start to see in the middle of the year progress on tariffs going through once, and then tariff inflation coming down."
Kush Desai, White House Spokesperson
Relevance: primary · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson, said, "In the one year since Liberation Day, President Trump has fundamentally transformed the global trading system and ended decades of foreign free-riding off the backs of hardworking Americans. President Trump has powerfully used tariffs to renegotiate trade deals, secure trillions in manufacturing investments, and lower drug prices."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Zach Negin owns a wine bar in Los Angeles.
Zach Negin, Wine Bar Owner
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Zach Negin said, "Tariffs have had an effect on the industry."
Zach Negin, Wine Bar Owner
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Zach Negin said, "We like to have wines from a variety of places because it's very location-dependent. That's the story, the history, and the romance of it. When you have less access to those things because they're more expensive, it limits our ability to have a variety of products."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Michael Salvatore runs coffee shops and bars in Chicago.
Michael Salvatore, Coffee Shop and Bar Owner
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Michael Salvatore said, "Every day is a win or a loss, and you can't really run a business that way."
Michael Salvatore, Coffee Shop and Bar Owner
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Michael Salvatore said, "This uncertainty creates this temperature where I'm going to hold off on any major decisions because I don't know how that's going to affect my bottom line tomorrow."
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