Hurricane Center Tracks Disturbance as Season Sets Record

By Beth Ann Timmings Boston, MA · HOUSTON —

Published Updated 2 min read

The National Hurricane Center monitors a disturbance with a 40% chance of formation while the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season sets a record. Eight tropical storms have formed, but no hurricanes have developed as of October 4.

HOUSTON — Four weather advisories are in effect for four regions in the Houston area as forecasters monitor a disturbance with a 40 percent chance of tropical formation in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center places a 40% chance of formation for the disturbance, while the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has set a record for the latest date for the first hurricane to form.

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Sunday in southeast Texas, primarily in the afternoon and starting near the coastline. Rain chances after the noon kickoff on Sunday are estimated at 20% to 30%. Drier air and sunshine are forecast to return to southeast Texas starting Monday.

A cold front is forecast to move through southeast Texas late Monday into Tuesday. The cold front is expected to bring low humidity, sunny skies, and morning temperatures in the 60s to southeast Texas. Four previous cold fronts stalled north of Houston during late summer and early fall. Rain chances are expected to return to southeast Texas by Thursday, especially along the coast.

Chief Meteorologist Anthony Yanez said there is a 40% chance the yellowish green cold becomes a tropical storm. Euro ensembles indicate a 40% chance of at least a tropical depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico. No hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin during the 2026 hurricane season as of October 4, 2026.

Why It Matters

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is on pace to have the latest first hurricane formation, surpassing the previous record set in 2005. Hurricanes Gustav and Humberto formed on September 11, marking the previous latest date for the first hurricane formation.

Timeline

The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced a recall, Link & Pan Of Texas Inc. And CPSC Recall Stuffed Bears, on 1994-10-28. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has set a record for the latest first hurricane formation, with the previous record held by Hurricanes Gustav and Humberto, which formed on September 11, 2005. The most recent was HURRICANE BERYL, declared for an incident beginning 2024-07-05 (disaster 4798). PureSource News reported on 2026-07-06: Trump Schedules 250th Anniversary Rally on National Mall. Primary sources: cpsc.gov, fema.gov

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has set a record for the latest date of the first hurricane formation, surpassing the previous record of September 11, 2026, when Hurricanes Gustav and Humberto formed. In the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, eight tropical storms have formed, but no hurricanes have developed as of October 4, 2026.

What's New

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is on pace to have the latest first hurricane formation, surpassing the previous record set in 2005. In the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, eight tropical storms have formed, but no hurricanes have developed as of October 4, 2026.

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Sunday in southeast Texas, primarily in the afternoon and starting near the coastline. North Carolina temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s on Friday, with a possibility of hitting 90 degrees. Sunday in North Carolina is forecast to be cool, cloudy, and damp with highs in the 60s.

fact_check Facts

Four weather advisories are in effect for four regions in the Houston area.
Drier air and sunshine are forecast to return to southeast Texas starting Monday.
A cold front is forecast to move through southeast Texas late Monday into Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Sunday in southeast Texas, primarily in the afternoon and starting near the coastline.
Rain chances after the noon kickoff on Sunday are estimated at 20% to 30%.
Source: forecast.weather.gov
Rain chances are expected to return to southeast Texas by Thursday, especially along the coast.
The National Hurricane Center places a 40% chance of formation for a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
North Carolina temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s on Friday, with a possibility of hitting 90 degrees.
Source: forecast.weather.gov
Piedmont Triad International Airport has not recorded a 90-degree day in October in the last seven years.
A cold front is forecast to bring cooler and wetter weather to North Carolina this weekend.
Source: census.gov
Sunday in North Carolina is forecast to be cool, cloudy, and damp with highs in the 60s.
Source: forecast.weather.gov
Sunshine and milder temperatures are forecast to return to North Carolina on Monday.
Showers are forecast for Philadelphia on Sunday with less than a tenth of an inch of rain expected.
Parts of South Jersey and Delaware are expected to receive closer to a quarter inch of rain on Sunday.
Northeasterly winds gusting to 20 mph are forecast for Philadelphia on Sunday.
Source: forecast.weather.gov
Tuesday is forecast to be the coolest afternoon of the week in Philadelphia with a high of 65 degrees.
Source: forecast.weather.gov
Wednesday morning temperatures in Philadelphia could drop to 46 degrees, with some suburbs possibly dipping into the 30s.
Source: forecast.weather.gov
Temperatures in Philadelphia are forecast to warm to 73 degrees on Wednesday, 77 degrees on Thursday, and 77 degrees on Friday.
Source: forecast.weather.gov
Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be dry in Philadelphia with highs in the 70s.
Source: forecast.weather.gov

menu_bookBackground & Sources

Context and data our newsroom added to the originating report, with the primary source for each item shown below it.

Four previous cold fronts stalled north of Houston during late summer and early fall.
Eight tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic basin so far in the 2026 hurricane season.
No hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin during the 2026 hurricane season as of October 4, 2026.
Hurricanes Gustav and Humberto formed on September 11, marking the previous latest date for the first hurricane formation.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has set a record for the latest date of the first hurricane formation, surpassing the previous record of September 11, 2026, when Hurricanes Gustav and Humberto formed.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has set a record for the latest first hurricane formation, with the previous record held by Hurricanes Gustav and Humberto, which formed on September 11, 2005.
In the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, eight tropical storms have formed, but no hurricanes have developed as of October 4, 2026.
PureSource News reported on 2026-07-06: Trump Schedules 250th Anniversary Rally on National Mall
Source: weather.gov
FEMA has issued 1370 federal disaster declarations for hurricane incidents in Texas since the programme began.
Source: fema.gov
The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced a recall, "Link & Pan Of Texas Inc. And CPSC Recall Stuffed Bears", on 1994-10-28.
Source: cpsc.gov
A tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward.
The most recent was HURRICANE BERYL, declared for an incident beginning 2024-07-05 (disaster 4798).
Source: fema.gov

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