RIGA — The United List party is projected to win 42 seats in the Saeima following the October 4, 2026 parliamentary election. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs's four-party coalition received 35% of the vote.

Andris Kulbergs leads the centrist United List party. The projection places the alliance as the dominant political force in Latvia, though it lacks a majority to govern alone in the 100-member chamber. The Saeima consists of 100 members elected for a four-year term. Political parties must receive at least 5% of the vote to win seats.

Voter turnout in the election exceeded 51%. Approximately 1.56 million people were eligible to vote. The Central Election Commission reported that voter turnout was 51.8%, the lowest since Latvia restored its independence in 1991.

Why It Matters

The election result confirms the United List as the leading political bloc, yet the 42-seat projection leaves the party short of the 51 seats required for a single-party majority. This outcome necessitates coalition building, continuing a pattern of multi-party governance in Latvia. Voter turnout was 51.8%.

The political context remains tied to regional security concerns. The previous government fell due to disputes over stray drones suspected of originating from Ukraine. According to reports, the United List party has been associated with a strong pro-Ukraine stance, with Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs pledging to maintain defense spending at 5% of GDP, one of the highest levels in NATO. It was reported that Latvia's defense spending has increased to nearly 5% of GDP since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Timeline

A previous governing coalition collapsed in May 2026 following a political crisis regarding stray drones suspected of originating from Ukraine. On October 4, 2026, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs's four-party coalition received 35% of the vote in the Latvian parliamentary election. Also on October 4, 2026, the United List party is projected to win 42 seats in the Saeima. Voter turnout in the election exceeded 51% on October 4, 2026. Approximately 1.56 million people were eligible to vote in the election on October 4, 2026. On October 5, 2026, Latvian lawmakers plan to begin negotiations to form a new government following the election.

What's New

The Central Election Commission reported that voter turnout in the 2026 Saeima election was 51.8%, the lowest since Latvia restored its independence in 1991. The United List party, led by Andris Kulbergs, won 42 seats in the 2026 Saeima elections. The United List is projected to have 42 seats in the 100-member Saeima, making it the dominant political force in Latvia, but still lacking a majority to govern alone.

Andris Kulbergs, the leader of the United List, came to power in May 2026 after the collapse of a previous coalition government over issues involving stray drones suspected of originating from Ukraine. The United List party has been part of a coalition government with the National Alliance and New Unity since May 2026, following the collapse of the previous government over a crisis involving stray Ukrainian drones. The United List is a regionalist and green conservative political alliance formed by the Latvian Green Party, the Latvian Association of Regions, and the Liepāja Party, together with the 'United List of Latvia' association led by Uldis Pīlēns.