BERLIN — Chancellor Friedrich Merz canceled a planned trip to the UN General Assembly in New York to remain in Berlin during state elections. A government official stated Merz canceled the trip because his presence was required in Berlin after the elections.

State elections are being held in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday. Polling booths open at 8am local time on Sunday and close at 6pm local time on Sunday. Approximately 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in Berlin, while nearly 1.3 million people are eligible to vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

In Berlin, the CDU is competing for first place against Die Linke. According to ZDF’s Politbarometer Extra, The Left is slightly ahead of the CDU in Berlin with 22 percent support compared to the CDU's 20 percent, while the AfD follows with 18 percent. Die Linke has called for the expropriation of corporate landlords to fight rising housing costs. Approximately 85% of Berlin households rent their homes, and advertised rents in Berlin have nearly doubled since 2014.

The CDU candidate for mayor of Berlin is Stefan Evers, who replaced Kai Wegner after Wegner abandoned his re-election bid for mayor of Berlin in July. Stefan Evers is Berlin’s chief finance official.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD and the Social Democrats are in a close race. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU is polling at 6 to 7 percent, which would be its worst-ever result in a state election as it has never received less than 9 percent previously.

Friedrich Merz's personal approval rating is 10%. Holger Schmieding, the chief economist at Berenberg bank, assessed the internal stability of the chancellor's position. "But the risk that the CDU may revolt against him and replace the unpopular chancellor seems to have risen from 20% 10 days ago to roughly 35% now, in my view," Schmieding said in a research note.

Merz addressed his tenure during an industry group address. "We as a government were elected for four years, I was elected for four years," Merz said. "And I want to use these four years to lead the country out of this difficult period."

The nationwide daily average price for a litre of E10 gasoline hit a record €2.286 earlier in the week preceding the elections. More than 3 million people were unemployed in Germany in August, according to the Federal Employment Agency. Unemployment in Germany increased by 36,000 from the previous year.

Germany's constitution requires a constructive vote of no confidence to remove a chancellor, which needs a majority of all Bundestag members to vote for a specific replacement. A constructive vote of no confidence has occurred only once in Germany, in 1982. This high threshold makes removing a sitting chancellor difficult without a unified opposition bloc.

What's New

Friedrich Merz plans to convene the CDU leadership in Berlin on Sunday. Chancellor Friedrich Merz will not fly to New York next Tuesday to attend the United Nations General Assembly as planned.

Kerstin Münstermann is a member of the regional Rheinische Post's editorial board and head of its Berlin parliamentary bureau.

91% of AfD supporters in Saxony-Anhalt voiced fear of a potential new influx of foreigners, according to an analysis by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. 85% of AfD supporters in Saxony-Anhalt said they were concerned about immigration causing too much change within German society, according to an analysis by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

Why It Matters

The cancellation of the UN General Assembly attendance reflects the domestic pressure facing the chancellor during simultaneous state elections. With the CDU polling at historic lows in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and trailing in Berlin, the results could influence internal party dynamics. The risk of a leadership challenge, estimated at roughly 35% by one analyst, reflects the stakes for Merz as he seeks to maintain his mandate.

Economic conditions, including record gasoline prices and rising unemployment, form the backdrop for voter sentiment. The AfD's recent gains in Saxony-Anhalt and its focus on immigration issues highlight the competitive landscape. The constitutional requirement for a constructive vote of no confidence provides structural stability, but the political cost of poor electoral performance remains a central factor in the chancellor's immediate future.