U.S. — The CBS News House model estimates Democrats will win 228 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. This projection exceeds the 218 seats required for a majority in the 435-seat chamber.

The estimate relies on data from a survey conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,460 U.S. adults interviewed between September 8 and 11, 2026. The margin of error for the survey is ±2.3 percentage points. The model's estimate for Democratic seats ranges from a lower bound of 215 to the high 230s.

Why It Matters

The projection indicates a potential shift in control of the House, with Democrats surpassing the threshold needed for a majority. The survey data shows specific demographic and policy-driven factors influencing voter sentiment heading into the midterms.

Timeline

September 8-11, 2026: A nationally representative sample of 2,460 U.S. adults was interviewed for the survey. September 11, 2026: The survey concluded, and the CBS News House model generated its seat projection based on the collected data.

What's New

The latest model projection places Democratic seat wins at 228, an increase from previous benchmarks. Survey results show more Democrats report being very enthusiastic about voting than Republicans do. Democrats see growth relative to the 2024 vote among Hispanic voters. Most Hispanic voters say they prefer a candidate who opposes the administration's approach to ICE.

How Sources Differ

Republican voters display distinct patterns of engagement and preference. Most MAGA Republicans say they are just as interested in voting in the 2026 midterms as they were in the 2024 election. Non-MAGA Republicans are less likely than MAGA Republicans to say they will definitely vote.

For most Republicans, Donald Trump's endorsement makes them more likely to back a candidate. Republicans continue to approve of Donald Trump in large numbers, particularly on immigration.

Policy positions influence candidate preference across the electorate. Most voters prefer a candidate who opposes new tariffs. Most voters prefer a candidate who opposes the Iran conflict.

Republicans prefer a candidate who supports Donald Trump's approach to ICE operations, tariffs, and the conflict with Iran. Most non-MAGA Republicans do not say Americans should be willing to pay more during the Iran conflict.

Economic perceptions and emerging technologies also factor into voter sentiment. Most voters do not believe the One Big Beautiful Bill has helped them financially. Democrats and Republicans each tend to think AI will decrease rather than increase the number of jobs.

Democrats are more apt than Republicans to believe AI will decrease the number of jobs. On balance, voters would prefer a candidate opposed to new data centers in their area to one who would support building them. Democratic socialist endorsements do not play well beyond the Democratic base and receive only mixed support within it.