GULF OF MEXICO — A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 to 36 hours. The National Weather Service issued a Tropical Cyclone Local Statement for West Cameron and East Cameron at 10:21 AM CDT on August 31. Storm surge heights of 1 to 3 feet above ground are possible from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, Louisiana, if the peak surge occurs at high tide.

Why It Matters

FEMA has issued 1,450 federal disaster declarations for hurricane incidents in Louisiana since the program began. The most recent declaration was for Tropical Storm Francine, which began on September 10, 2024. Southwest Louisiana is a region in Louisiana that has frequently been affected by such systems.

Timeline

The most recent federal disaster declaration for the region was for Tropical Storm Francine, declared for an incident beginning on September 10, 2024.

The National Hurricane Center designated a new system as Tropical Depression Five on August 31, 2026, in the Gulf of Mexico, with the center near latitude 28.0 North and longitude 90.8 West, located 120 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana. Later that day, at 1:00 PM CDT, the system was centered at those coordinates and was located approximately 120 miles south-southeast of Morgan City and 230 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph with higher gusts, and the depression was forecast to become a tropical storm by the night of August 31, 2026.

What's New

Additional reporting indicates the National Hurricane Center issued advisories for Tropical Depression Five and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana, stating that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24-36 hours.

Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner stated that regardless of additional development, a surge of tropical moisture looks likely across the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast Tuesday-Thursday with an increasing threat of heavy to potentially excessive rainfall. Background records show that Tropical Depression Five is also the name of an Atlantic tropical depression from 2010. FEMA has issued 1,450 federal disaster declarations for hurricane incidents in Louisiana since the program began, with the most recent being for Tropical Storm Francine, declared for an incident beginning on September 10, 2024. Southwest Louisiana is a region in Louisiana, United States.

How Sources Differ

Sources present differing details regarding the location and characteristics of Tropical Depression Five. The nhc.noaa.gov source states the National Hurricane Center designated a new system as Tropical Depression Five on August 31, 2026, in the Gulf of Mexico, with the center near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 90.8 West, located 120 miles SSE of Morgan City, Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center Advisory AL052026 states Tropical Depression Five was located approximately 120 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana, and 230 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas.

Regarding the designation details, nhc.noaa.gov provides the full geographic context of the designation in the Gulf of Mexico, while the National Hurricane Center Advisory AL052026 states simply that the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Five on August 31, 2026. On the specific timing and position, nhc.noaa.gov includes the latitude and longitude in the designation statement, whereas the Advisory specifies that at 1:00 PM CDT on August 31, 2026, Tropical Depression Five was centered at latitude 28.0 North and longitude 90.8 West.

Forecast details also vary in presentation. The nhc.noaa.gov source includes the location data in its designation summary, while the Advisory adds that the center of Tropical Depression Five is predicted to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Movement data is present in the Advisory, which notes Tropical Depression Five was moving west-northwest at 5 mph, a detail not included in the nhc.noaa.gov designation summary.

Rainfall expectations are described differently across sources. The nhc.noaa.gov source focuses on the designation and location, while the Advisory specifies that Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce 2 to 3 inches of rainfall for Southwest Louisiana. Perspectives on moisture also differ; Jeff Lindner stated that a surge of tropical moisture looks likely across the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast Tuesday-Thursday with an increasing threat of heavy to potentially excessive rainfall, while the National Hurricane Center Advisory AL052026 states Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 9 inches, for parts of the Upper Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas.