Morocco, the world’s top sardine supplier, recorded a nearly 46 percent decline in sardine landings between 2022 and 2024 as climate change and rising fuel costs constrained the industry. Sardine landings in Morocco fell to 525,000 metric tons from 965,000 tons, according to data from the National Fisheries Office (ONP). This reduction coincides with warming water pushing sardines into new territories further away from fishermen. The war in Iran and the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz are driving up fuel costs.

Rashid Sumaila, a professor and Canada Research Chair in interdisciplinary ocean and fisheries economics at the University of British Columbia, described the combined pressures on the industry. "It’s like we’re facing a double whammy," Sumaila said.

Sumaila explained that sardines are highly responsive to thermal changes in the ocean. "Sardines are very sensitive to climate change, and we know it here on the Pacific coast," he said. "When it’s warm, sardines move from Mexico through the U.S. and Canadians see more sardines." He added, "They follow the temperature."

The economic impact extends beyond the catch itself to the costs of operation and preservation. "The price of fishing, the vessels, the energy. It’s crazy," he said.

He pointed out that the conflict in the Middle East has indirect effects on the sector. "The Iran war doesn’t quite impact this directly, but indirectly it does, because prices are going up," he said. One-fifth of the world’s global oil supply normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude surged 10% to 13% after the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to shipping this spring. The International Energy Agency called the closure of the Strait of Hormuz the largest oil-supply disruption in the market’s history. These energy price increases affect every stage of the supply chain, from fueling boats to powering freezing facilities. "The war is going to affect it too, because all the freezing is energy, and energy prices are going up while the sources are being reduced," he said.

Frozen sardine exports fell from about 70% of Morocco’s small open-sea fish exports in 2020 to roughly 23% in 2025. This shift represents a fall of 47 percentage points in the share of frozen sardines within that export category.

Sumaila emphasized that these dynamics are not isolated to one region. "This isn’t only the fish we catch in Canada. It’s fish coming from all over the world. All of it gets affected. The price dynamics show up in people’s household budgets," he said.

He observed that consumer awareness of these costs is widespread. "It’s not only in the developing world. We all feel it. I don’t go to any meeting these days where somebody isn’t talking about the cost of groceries," he said.

The pressure on fishers is global. "Thai fishers are feeling it," he said. "You can imagine Moroccan fishers, or fishers in Africa or the Pacific Islands, feeling it too." He noted the increased risks associated with current conditions.

"It’s more risky. Insurance payments, security for people. The combination is really quite scary," he said. The movement of fish stocks also affects regional management strategies. "It’s the whole region. If the fish are moving up, that’s what we face," he said.

Other factors contribute to the stress on ocean resources. "Some of that 45% drop is partly climate change, and partly overfishing, and other things happening to the ocean," he said. He cited additional environmental burdens.

"There’s just so much. You have pollution, plastic. Stresses upon stresses," he said. Subsidies also play a role in fishing dynamics. Global fisheries subsidies were estimated at $35.4 billion in 2018. Of that total, $22.2 billion of global fisheries subsidies in 2018 were classified as capacity-enhancing subsidies that fuel overfishing.

Sumaila criticized the role of financial support in distorting fishing efforts. "A fish called subsidies," he said. "A third of your fish is actually subsidized and illegally caught." He argued that high fuel costs can paradoxically lead to more intensive fishing if subsidies offset the expense.

"If you pay for fuel, that just makes people fish more than they would," he said. Climate change remains a primary driver of the current disruptions. "Climate change is a factor," he said.

Global demand for tinned fish has risen alongside these supply constraints. Sardines have overtaken salmon as the second-most popular tinned fish behind tuna. Grubhub reported that orders of tinned fish tripled in 2025.

The global tinned fish market was worth roughly $10.24 billion in 2024. Similar pressures are evident in other major sardine-producing nations. Portugal closed its purse-seine sardine fishery for the final weeks of 2025 after its fleet worked through roughly two-thirds of the combined Portugal-Spain quota.

Portugal’s 2026 sardine season reopened in May with a national catch limit of 33,446 tonnes. Portugal’s 2026 sardine catch limit is nearly 1,000 tonnes fewer than the year before. These adjustments reflect the ongoing challenge of managing stocks in a changing environment.

Timeline

In the same year, $22.2 billion of global fisheries subsidies in 2018 were classified as capacity-enhancing subsidies that fuel overfishing.

What's New

Sardine landings in Morocco fell 46 percent between 2022 and 2024, declining to 525,000 metric tons from 965,000 tons, according to data from the National Fisheries Office (ONP). Canada Research Chair is Canadian university research professorships.

Why It Matters

Morocco’s position as the world’s top sardine supplier means that a 46 percent drop in landings has implications for global supply chains. The decline from 965,000 tons to 525,000 tons reduces the availability of a key protein source and affects export revenues. The shift in frozen sardine exports from 70% to 23% of small open-sea fish exports indicates a structural change in how the industry operates and sells its product.

The combination of climate-driven migration and geopolitical fuel cost increases creates a complex challenge for sustainability. As sardines move to new territories, fishing fleets must travel further, increasing fuel consumption and costs. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent rise in Brent crude prices exacerbate these costs.

Consumers worldwide face higher prices for tinned fish, as evidenced by the tripling of orders on platforms like Grubhub and the growth of the global market to $10.24 billion. The situation illustrates how environmental and economic factors intersect to impact food security and household budgets globally.