GRANTS PASS — The estimated rate of premature deaths from wildfire smoke in Josephine County and Trinity County was 17 per 100,000 people between 2006 and 2020. This figure represents the highest average annual climate change-related wildfire PM2.5 mortality rate recorded for any counties in the United States during that period.

Josephine County is located near the California border and is carved out by the Rogue and Illinois rivers. Residents of the county refer to the period from approximately May to October as "smoke season."

A sign reading "IT’S THE CLIMATE" forms an arch over 6th Street in Grants Pass, Oregon. Joy Shinerock owns a woodworking art gallery called It’s a Burl in Kerby, Oregon, and has lived in the region for decades.

Joy Shinerock and her late husband Harvey moved to Oregon from California in 1987. Harvey Shinerock died in the summer of 2013 after smoke worsened his illness.

Residents employ various methods to mitigate smoke exposure when air quality declines. Cynthia Hewitt wets towels and wedges them around doorframes to prevent smoke from entering her home. Randi Maldonado sits in a bathroom with hot water running from the bathtub to create steam to help her toddler breathe during heavy smoke events.

Healthcare providers observe severe impacts of smoke on patients and facility operations. Susan Albright works at an urgent care clinic in Grants Pass, Oregon. Joann Reed reported that hospital staff were tasked with standing near exits to shut doors quickly to keep smoke out during a summer with severe smoke conditions. Kim Williams, a salon worker, stated that a client’s husband died shortly after leaving windows open overnight during a wildfire smoke event.

Why It Matters

The findings from the 2025 Nature study project that annual U.S. deaths from wildfire smoke could reach 70,000 by 2050 if current warming trends continue. This estimate suggests a substantial increase from the historical average of nearly 11,000 deaths per year observed between 2006 and 2020.

Research titled "Seventh Oregon Climate Assessment" was also published in 2025, providing additional regional context on climate impacts. The combination of national mortality projections and local high-risk identification in Josephine and Trinity counties points to a growing challenge for public health infrastructure and resident safety in wildfire-prone areas.

Timeline

Joy Shinerock and her late husband Harvey moved to Oregon from California in 1987. Harvey Shinerock died in the summer of 2013 after smoke worsened his illness. A 2025 study published in Nature magazine identified Josephine County, Oregon, and Trinity County, California, as having the highest rate of wildfire smoke deaths linked to climate change in the U.S. between 2006 and 2020. A 2025 study in Nature estimates that annual U.S. deaths from wildfire smoke could reach 70,000 by 2050 if current warming trends continue.

What's New

Additional reporting notes that research titled "Seventh Oregon Climate Assessment" was published in 2025. This document provides further orientation on the climatic factors affecting the region alongside the mortality data released in Nature.