MACAU — Dominic Barton, the chair of Rio Tinto and strategic counselor to Eurasia Group, warned that the global order based on free trade and international institutions is eroding. Speaking ahead of the Fortune Leaders Forum scheduled for September 8 in Macau, he cited rising geopolitical risk and a shift from diplomatic to social-media-driven statecraft.

"We’re in a world where all the assumptions about international institutions, free trade, a rules-based order—that’s all going away," Barton said. "Fifteen years ago, there would have probably been diplomats bringing this forward. Now it’s just tweeted."

Barton advised companies to reassess their operational resilience in this new landscape. He suggested that superficial networking events no longer provide sufficient value in an era requiring deeper strategic alignment. "You have to move away from the after-dinner speaker. You’d get a former politician or someone at a board to give a talk at dinner and say, ‘let me tell you about my experience.’ That’s kind of over," he said.

Rio Tinto reported a 43% jump in underlying earnings over the first half of the year, according to its July 29 earnings release. The mining giant cited higher copper and aluminum prices during growing demand tied to data centers for its earnings increase. China accounts for more than half of Rio Tinto’s total revenue, driven largely by demand for iron ore used in steelmaking.

Barton’s current role follows a diverse career in both the private and public sectors. He spent over 30 years at McKinsey & Company, including nine years as the Global Managing Partner and six years as Asia Chairman. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appointed him ambassador to China in 2019.

During his tenure as Canada's Ambassador to China from 2019 to 2021, Barton played a key role in securing the release of two detained Canadian citizens, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig. This occurred during a diplomatic standoff with China involving the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. The U.S. later agreed to defer prosecution of Meng Wanzhou. Barton was appointed as the Chair of Rio Tinto in May 2022, following his diplomatic service.

The backdrop to Barton’s remarks includes recent trade tensions between the United States and Canada. U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods including autos, dairy, and alcohol on August 19, 2026. On August 19, 2026, Trump announced on social media that he would delay new Canada tariffs by three days as negotiations continued between the two countries.

Why It Matters

Barton’s warnings highlight the challenges facing multinational corporations as geopolitical fragmentation intensifies. With Rio Tinto deriving more than half of its revenue from China, the company’s performance is closely tied to Sino-Western relations. The 43% increase in underlying earnings for the first half of 2026 demonstrates the financial stakes involved in maintaining these supply chains despite political pressures.

The shift from diplomatic channels to social media for statecraft introduces unpredictability into international business planning. Barton’s experience as both a corporate leader and a diplomat provides a unique perspective on these changes. His advice to companies focuses on building resilience through careful management of debt, data, and incorporation strategies. The upcoming Fortune Leaders Forum in Macau will provide a platform for further discussion on these critical issues.

Timeline

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appointed Dominic Barton ambassador to China in 2019. Rio Tinto reported a 43% jump in underlying earnings over the first half of the year on July 29, 2026. On the same day, Rio Tinto cited higher copper and aluminum prices during growing demand tied to data centers for its earnings increase. Trump announced on August 19, 2026, that he would delay new Canada tariffs by three days as negotiations continued between the two countries. U.S. President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods including autos, dairy, and alcohol on August 19, 2026. The Fortune Leaders Forum will convene on September 8 in Macau.

What's New

Additional reporting indicates that Dominic Barton was appointed as the Chair of Rio Tinto in May 2022, following his tenure as Canada’s Ambassador to China from 2019 to 2021. During his time as ambassador, Barton served as Canada's Ambassador to China from 2019 to 2021, during which he played a key role in securing the release of two detained Canadian citizens, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, during a diplomatic standoff with China involving the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. In 2025, Dominic Barton delivered a speech at the Jesus College, University of Cambridge, where he discussed his views on China’s growing influence and the need for deeper engagement between Western countries and Chinese entities.

Background information shows that Dominic Barton spent over 30 years at McKinsey & Company, including nine years as the Global Managing Partner and six years as Asia Chairman, leading the firm’s expansion in the region. Further context reveals that Rio Tinto’s revenue is heavily dependent on China, with the country accounting for more than half of the company’s total revenue, driven largely by demand for iron ore used in steelmaking. According to Fortune magazine, Trump imposed a 50% tariff on most Canadian goods in July 2026, invoking the 'nuclear option' that could trigger economic chaos and inflation. Rio Tinto reported a 43% increase in underlying earnings for the first half of 2026, attributed to higher copper and aluminum prices driven by demand from data centers.

How Sources Differ

Sources differ on the scope of tariffs imposed by Trump on Canadian goods. One account states that Trump imposed a 50% tariff on most Canadian goods in July 2026, invoking the 'nuclear option' that could trigger economic chaos and inflation, according to Fortune magazine. Another source indicates that U.S. President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods including autos, dairy, and alcohol. There is also a difference in the description of Rio Tinto's earnings report. Another source says that Rio Tinto reported a 43% jump in underlying earnings over the first half of the year. Regarding the drivers of this increase, one account attributes it to higher copper and aluminum prices driven by demand from data centers, while another states that Rio Tinto cited higher copper and aluminum prices during growing demand tied to data centers for its earnings increase.