PACIFIC OCEAN — "We’re already at record-breaking or record-tying territory now, and we’re expected to skyrocket," climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a YouTube briefing. It is virtually certain that 2027 will set a record for the hottest year on record due to the strength of the current El Niño.

It is possible that 2026 will set a record for the hottest year on record. Berkeley Earth modeling indicates median temperatures for the Niño 3.4 region could reach 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal, accounting for long-term global warming.

El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon involves the weakening of trade winds that blow from east to west, allowing seawater to accumulate on the eastern side of the Pacific.

"Super El Niño" is not an official term used by meteorological agencies. Super El Niño events, also called very strong El Niño events, are climatic phenomena resulting from the average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising by 2° Celsius or more.

As of early 2026 there have been five super El Niño events in recorded history. The El Niño events of 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24 are classified as Super El Niños.

The last very strong El Niño occurred in 2015–2016. The 2015–2016 Super El Niño resulted in near seasonal average snow totals for the Tahoe region and below average totals for Southern California.

The 2023–24 Super El Niño contributed to the worst drought in over 100 years for southern Africa. Approximately 61 million people in southern Africa required humanitarian aid due to conditions associated with the 2023–24 Super El Niño.

El Niño increases the probability of increased rainfall in the Southwest United States. El Niño decreases the probability of precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

El Niño tends to result in a milder Atlantic hurricane season with fewer storms. El Niño increases the risk of drought in Indonesia and parts of southern Africa.

El Niño increases the odds of winter warmth in Japan, parts of Australia, and Brazil. El Niño winters tend to be milder and drier than average in parts of the Midwest United States.

La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific. La Niña is associated with higher odds of rain in Indonesia, a more active Atlantic hurricane season, and drier conditions in the Southwest United States.

El Niño events occur every few years. El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that is not caused by climate change, though climate change may influence its frequency, intensity, and impacts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses the Relative Oceanic Niño Index to account for long-term background ocean warming trends. NOAA El Niño intensity records date back to 1950.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency monitors a different region than the Niño 3.4 area using its own criteria for declaring El Niño. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology includes an atmospheric component in its threshold for declaring El Niño.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center releases updates on the second Thursday of every month. Research titled How an El Niño becomes a super El Niño was published in 2026.

OpenSnow’s 2026–2027 Winter Forecast Preview predicts above-average snowfall across California and Nevada due to the developing El Niño pattern. The Central Sierra has the highest statistical probability for well-above-average snow accumulation according to OpenSnow data.

Northern California and the Tahoe region are projected to be warmer than average during the 2026–2027 winter. Below-normal snowfall is favored along the northern U.S. border and across western Canada for the 2026–2027 winter.

"We are projecting above-normal precipitation across a large portion of the U.S. including the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and East Coast as strong El Niños favor an active southern storm track," meteorologist Alan Smith said in a forecast report. Smith added that Southern California ski resorts see disproportionate snowfall during these events. "SoCal ski resorts such as Mountain High and Snow Summit, also tend to see disproportionately higher snowfall in El Niño winters (especially strong ones) compared to neutral or La Nina winters," he said.

What's New

Research titled How an El Niño becomes a super El Niño was published in 2026. The confidence in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast for a very strong El Niño increased to 90 percent from 81 percent a month prior.

"We are projecting above-normal precipitation across a large portion of the U.S. including the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and East Coast as strong El Niños favor an active southern storm track," meteorologist Alan he said. Smith also noted that "SoCal ski resorts such as Mountain High and Snow Summit, also tend to see disproportionately higher snowfall in El Niño winters (especially strong ones) compared to neutral or La Nina winters."

"This El Niño could be one of the strongest in the historical records going back to 1950, but CPC indicates that is no guarantee that we will see 'typical' impacts everywhere," meteorologist David Biggar said. Climate scientist Daniel Swain stated, "We’re already at record-breaking or record-tying territory now, and we’re expected to skyrocket."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a nearly 70 percent chance that the current El Niño will be the strongest such event on record. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters anticipate sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño region will exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius above average over a three-month timespan.

How Sources Differ

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast states that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a greater than 90 percent probability that the current El Niño will become "very strong" during the fall and winter. The NOAA forecast states that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a nearly 70 percent chance that the current El Niño will be the strongest such event on record.

Why It Matters

The projected intensity of the current El Niño carries implications for global weather patterns and temperature records. With a greater than 90 percent probability of becoming very strong, the event joins a rare group of historical occurrences that have shaped climate conditions worldwide.

The potential for 2027 to become the hottest year on record reflects the scale of the anticipated thermal impact. Previous super El Niño events, such as the one in 2023–24, have led to severe humanitarian crises, including a drought in southern Africa that affected 61 million people.