SYDNEY — U.S. Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby stated at an Asia-Pacific press briefing in Sydney that the AUKUS submarine deal is "full steam ahead." Colby said the United States and Australia share a "deep alignment of thinking" regarding the trilateral security partnership.

The agreement outlines a multi-decade timeline for naval modernization, with the first Virginia-class submarine scheduled to be sold to Australia in 2032. Under Pillar one of the AUKUS agreement, Australia will buy between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the United States.

Colby described the AUKUS agreement as "an historic endeavour on the part of both countries, but particularly for Australia." He added that the U.S. is "very pleased with the progress that has been made since the conclusion of the Aukus review."

The transfer of these vessels faces statutory and operational hurdles within the United States. The U.S. president must certify that relinquishing a submarine will not diminish the U.S. Navy’s undersea capability before any boat can be sold to Australia.

Current production metrics present a challenge to meeting these obligations. The U.S. currently manufactures Virginia-class submarines at a rate of 1.1 to 1.2 per year. A production rate of two Virginia-class submarines per year is required to service U.S. needs alone.

To facilitate sales to Australia, a production rate of 2.33 Virginia-class submarines per year is required. The U.S. submarine fleet currently consists of 49 boats against a force-level goal of 66.

Criticism of the arrangement has emerged during domestic proceedings in Australia. An inquiry into AUKUS held public hearings in Sydney, Newcastle, and Port Kembla to examine the program.

Beyond the initial purchases, Australia plans to build up to eight AUKUS submarines, with the final vessels launched in the 2060s. The first Australian-built AUKUS submarine for the Royal Australian Navy is scheduled to be in the water in the early 2040s.

The United Kingdom is also developing its own fleet under the partnership. The UK is scheduled to launch the first specifically designed and built AUKUS submarine for the Royal Navy in the late 2030s. Each of Australia’s nuclear submarines is forecast to have a working life of about three decades.

Why It Matters

The AUKUS partnership represents a long-term commitment of resources and industrial capacity for all three nations. The projected cost of A$368bn by the mid-2050s reflects the financial scale of the endeavor for Australia, while the U.S. faces the challenge of increasing its submarine production rate from 1.1-1.2 per year to 2.33 per year to accommodate transfers without falling below its force-level goal of 66 boats.

The timeline extends well into the second half of the century, with final Australian-built vessels launching in the 2060s. This schedule requires sustained political and industrial alignment across multiple election cycles in three countries. The requirement for presidential certification before any transfer ensures that U.S. undersea superiority remains a primary constraint on the pace of the deal, linking Australian acquisition directly to U.S. naval readiness.

What's New

Later reporting clarified the legal framework governing the transfers. The U.S. Code authorizes the transfer of up to two Virginia-class submarines from the Department of the Navy to the Government of Australia on a sale basis, and not more than one additional Virginia-class submarine to the Government of Australia on a sale basis pursuant to section 21 of the Arms Export Control Act during the 20-year period beginning on the date that is one year after the effective date of the AUKUS partnership.

Additional context established the status of the submarine classes involved. Upon the 25 July 2025 decommissioning of the Los Angeles-class submarine USS Helena (SSN-725), the Virginia-class became the most numerous active submarine class in the world. The Virginia-class is a 2003 class of American nuclear-powered attack submarines.

Historical background notes that the Royal Australian Navy was established in 1911. The SSN-AUKUS class is intended to replace the UK's Astute-class and Australia's Collins-class submarines.