ATLANTIC OCEAN — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three disturbances in the Atlantic as of August 10, 2026. Two of the systems are located off the coast of Africa, while a third sits near Bermuda, with forecasters assigning varying probabilities for tropical development over the coming week.

A second tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 60% chance of tropical development over the next seven days. Satellite imagery shows a low-pressure system has developed within this tropical wave, which is expected to move west to west-northwest. The tropical wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands is likely to become a tropical depression toward the end of the week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic.

Forecaster Adams/Pasch issued the Tropical Weather Outlook, stating that an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As this system moves slowly westward, a tropical wave currently over west Africa is expected to merge with it in a couple of days. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, from a location between the Guinea and Senegal region.

A trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles north and west of Bermuda has a 10% chance of development over the next seven days. The trough north and west of Bermuda is producing thunderstorms and is forecast to move quickly east into the central Atlantic. The trough north and west of Bermuda is forecast to encounter cooler waters around the middle of the week, reducing its chances of development.

As of 8 a.m. EDT on August 10, 2026, the National Hurricane Center had not designated either of the two African tropical waves as an "Invest." The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this system is possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Saharan dust plumes are present across the Atlantic and engulfing parts of the Caribbean. A deeper plume of Saharan dust exiting Africa is staying north of the two tropical waves being monitored. As of Saturday morning, August 8, 2026, the National Hurricane Center gave the new disturbance off Africa a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.

The probability of a hurricane forming over the tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands striking the continental United States is less than 10%. When a tropical system enters the Caribbean and becomes a hurricane, it has a 30% to 40% chance of striking the Lower 48 states. At an average speed of 15 mph, it takes approximately 12 to 14 days for a tropical system to reach the U.S. coast from the tropical Atlantic.

It takes approximately five to six days for a tropical system near the Lesser Antilles to reach the continental United States. A system developing in the Gulf of Mexico can take as little as one to three days to reach the continental U.S. or the eastern Mexican coast.

Government forecasters expect a very strong El Niño climate pattern to last through the fall of 2026. El Niño creates atmospheric conditions that suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. Sea surface temperatures around Cuba and the Bahamas are between 87.8°F and 92.4°F (31°C to 33°C), which is about 1.8°F to 3.6°F (1°C to 2°C) above average.

Sea surface temperatures in the western Gulf of Mexico range from 87.8°F to 89.6°F (31°C to 32°C), about 0.9°F to 1.5°F (0.5°C to 1°C) above average. Sea surface temperatures around the southern half of Florida are around 87.8°F (31°C), about 1.8°F (1°C) above average.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates 7 to 13 named storms will form during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The agency estimates 2 to 6 hurricanes will form, with up to two reaching Category 3 strength or higher. The NOAA 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook ranges include Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, which formed in the Gulf earlier in the summer.

The next name on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season list is Cristobal. On average, a tropical wave moves west at about 15 mph.

Why It Matters

With a tropical wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands having a 60% chance of development, residents face a potential 12-to-14-day window before any resulting system could reach the U.S. coast. This timeline contrasts sharply with Gulf systems that can make landfall in as little as one to three days, limiting preparation time for those regions. While El Niño conditions generally suppress Atlantic activity, above-average sea surface temperatures near Florida and the Bahamas provide energy that could sustain storms entering the Caribbean, where the probability of striking the Lower 48 states rises to 30% to 40%.