SIBERIA — Annie Jacobsen outlines a hypothetical biological catastrophe in her new book "Biological War: A Scenario," which depicts an accident at the Vector Biosafety Level 4 laboratory in Siberia releasing pneumonic plague. The author states that Pentagon war gaming and pandemic planning indicate such an outbreak would lead to anarchy within six days.

Jacobsen said in a podcast interview that the timeline for societal collapse is derived from military simulations rather than pure speculation. "Anarchy is what will happen according to Pentagon war gaming and pandemic planning," she said.

The narrative moves quickly from the initial release of the pathogen to total breakdown. "In the book, I take readers from outbreak to anarchy in six days," Jacobsen said.

The scenario centers on the Vector laboratory, which is located in Koltsovo, Russia. This facility sits 12 miles from Novosibirsk, the third-largest city in Russia. In the book, the specific agent released is pneumonic plague, which is the airborne form of the disease caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classifies pneumonic plague as a Tier 1 select agent. These agents are designated as such because they present the greatest risk of deliberate misuse with significant potential for mass casualties or devastating effects on the economy and public confidence.

Jacobsen attributes the rapid descent into chaos to psychological factors as much as biological ones. "This is because fear of infection becomes a secondary weapon, if you will," she said. She added that people begin to behave as though they are about to die, a mindset that underpins the actions of the population during the crisis.

The book draws on historical efforts to weaponize the plague. Soviet bioweapons engineers worked to insert a gene for euphoria into the plague pathogen. Additionally, Soviet scientists inserted a gene into the plague pathogen that would trigger encephalitis, or swelling of the brain, upon the administration of antibiotics.

The fictional account parallels real-world safety concerns at the Vector facility. An explosion occurred at the Vector Biosafety Level 4 laboratory in Siberia in 2019. According to radiotimes.com, a gas explosion prompted a fire at the BSL-4 Vector laboratory in Siberia in 2019, but the incident did not cause an emergency. Available knowledge indicates that no deadly pathogen was released during the 2019 explosion at the Vector laboratory.

Historical precedent reflects the lethality of the disease. The bubonic plague killed between one-third and one-half of Europe's population in the 14th century. Biological war is defined as the use of biological toxins or infectious agents with the intent to kill as an act of war.

In Jacobsen's scenario, the government response after the initial six days involves high-level executive action. "And so after those first six days, the Principals Committee, the President’s Biodefense Committee, must make a decision," she said. The required step involves invoking federal authority to restore order.

"The president has to declare the Insurrection Act, which allows the military to step in as a law enforcement agency," he said. The Insurrection Act of 1807 was referenced in a January 29, 2025 Presidential Document regarding the southern border as a potential action to obtain operational control.

Jacobsen previously authored the 2024 book "Nuclear War: A Scenario," which has been optioned for a Hollywood adaptation. Her latest work, "Biological War: A Scenario," has been optioned for a television adaptation.

The book connects classified military planning with public health risks, suggesting that existing pandemic protocols anticipate rapid societal failure. By focusing on the Vector laboratory, the narrative shows ongoing concerns about biosafety at facilities that handle Tier 1 select agents. The inclusion of the Insurrection Act illustrates the legal mechanisms available to the federal government when civil order collapses due to biological threats.

Why It Matters

The narrative connects classified military planning with public health risks, suggesting existing pandemic protocols anticipate rapid societal failure within six days. By focusing on the Vector laboratory, the scenario shows ongoing concerns about biosafety at facilities handling Tier 1 select agents near major population centers. The inclusion of the Insurrection Act illustrates the legal mechanisms available to the federal government when civil order collapses due to biological threats.