ATLANTIC BASIN — Colorado State University forecasters issued a final outlook on 5 August 2026 predicting a suppressed 2026 Atlantic hurricane season driven by a powerful El Niño. The team expects nine named storms and four hurricanes, with activity well below average levels due to high wind shear across the basin.

A strengthening El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is causing higher wind shear across the Atlantic basin, which disrupts storm formation. Phil Klotzbach, lead hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University, stated that this climate pattern was expected to drive high wind shear and suppress hurricane activity during the remainder of the season.

"We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving very high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear," Klotzbach said. He added that the team was confident in the persistence of this weather pattern through the peak months of storm development.

"We are extremely confident that we will have a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season." The forecast reflects a reduction from earlier predictions, as the atmospheric conditions have become more favorable for suppression than initially anticipated in the spring.

In their April outlook, Colorado State University forecasters predicted 13 named storms and six hurricanes for the season. The revised numbers indicate a decrease in expected activity as the El Niño event has intensified beyond earlier model projections.

The current outlook includes one hurricane reaching at least Category 3 intensity. Klotzbach expects the 2026 season’s accumulated cyclone energy to be about 40 percent of normal levels, reflecting the limited potential for long-lived or intense systems.

"We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean." This projection offers some relief to coastal communities that typically face heightened risks during active hurricane seasons.

Two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, have formed in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall near Galveston early the morning after June 17, 2026, before degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone due to an ill-defined center and strong wind shear.

The centers of Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha passed near or directly over Houston, though both systems remained of moderate intensity. The accumulated cyclone energy for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to date is less than 30 percent of normal levels, consistent with the suppressed activity observed thus far.

Historically, the Atlantic basin usually sees three or four named storms by early August, with one becoming a hurricane. About 90 percent of tropical activity in the Atlantic occurs after early August, meaning the majority of the season remains ahead despite the slow start.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking two disturbances with low development chances over the next week. These systems face unfavorable conditions similar to those that hindered earlier formations, limiting their potential to organize into named storms.

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather provided context on the magnitude of the current El Niño event, noting its exceptional strength relative to historical records. He stated that the multi-model median for the El Niño event’s peak currently stands at 3.6C.

"The multi-model median for the event’s peak currently stands at 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record of 2.75C set in 2015-16." He noted that this deviation places the current event outside the range of typical variability observed in recent decades.

"For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C." "The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed."

El Niño adds additional fuel to global temperatures already rising due to climate change. The warming impact of El Niño typically lags its peak by several months, so the bulk of global heating will be observed in 2027.

Global temperatures in 2027 are projected to be the hottest ever recorded as a result of this lagged effect. This projection aligns with broader climate trends that continue to push temperature records higher in conjunction with natural variability.

Why It Matters

The forecasted suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity reduces the probability of major landfalls for U.S. and Caribbean communities during the period when 90 percent of seasonal storms typically form. However, the driving El Niño event is projected to be historically strong, pushing global temperatures to record highs in 2027 as its warming impact lags the peak. This creates a divergence where immediate tropical cyclone risks are lowered while broader global heating intensifies beyond observed historical envelopes.