TEXAS — Multiple recent polls show a tight U.S. Senate race in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, with the candidates separated by single digits across several surveys. A separate Texas Southern University poll of a representative sample of the likely statewide electorate found James Talarico receiving 47% support and Ken Paxton receiving 45% support.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll found James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 45% to 40% among likely voters. A Fox News poll found James Talarico leading Ken Paxton by 3 points overall among registered voters.

The polling data reveals distinct demographic divides in voter preference. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll found that Black voters supported James Talarico 71% to 8% over Ken Paxton. Latino voters supported James Talarico 66% to 20% over Ken Paxton in the same survey. White voters supported Ken Paxton 53% to 33% over James Talarico.

Talarico holds advantages among specific political and educational groups as well. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll found James Talarico leading among voters without a college degree, 45% to 36%. He led among independents, 43% to 23%, with 29% undecided. Among self-described moderates, Talarico led 54% to 20%.

Uncertainty remains high among the electorate. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll found that 14% of voters of all political stripes remain unsure about their pick for U.S. Senate. Among undecided voters in that poll, 19% leaned toward Ken Paxton and 10% leaned toward James Talarico. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll also found that 6% of self-identified Democrats were undecided.

Voter concerns about the candidates’ personalities and records vary. The Fox News poll found that 59% of Texas voters have serious concerns about Ken Paxton’s character. The same poll found that 47% of Texas voters fear James Talarico is too extreme.

Paxton enters the general election following a primary cycle. Ken Paxton defeated Senator John Cornyn in the GOP nomination runoff in late May. President Trump endorsed Ken Paxton in the Republican primary.

Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015. He reached a pretrial diversion agreement to throw out his 2015 securities fraud charges. Ken Paxton was impeached in 2023. Ken Paxton survived impeachment proceedings in the state Senate in a 16–14 vote.

Talarico secured the Democratic nomination earlier in the year. James Talarico defeated Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on March 3. Jasmine Crockett endorsed James Talarico the day after losing the March 3 primary.

The primary outcome has had lingering effects on some segments of the Democratic base. The Texas Southern University poll found that 7% of Black Texans said they are less likely to vote in the November midterm elections due to Jasmine Crockett’s defeat in the Democratic primary. A Texas Southern University poll of 500 Black Texans who voted in recent elections found that 79% of likely Black voters intend to vote for James Talarico. The same Texas Southern University poll found that 12% of likely Black voters support Republican Ken Paxton.

Perceptions of party engagement also emerged from the data. The Texas Southern University poll found that 77% of recent Black voters believe the Democratic Party in Texas takes Black voters for granted. The Texas Southern University poll found that 80% of respondents believed Jasmine Crockett’s race influenced the decision by non-Black primary voters to support James Talarico.

Talarico has acknowledged these sentiments publicly. James Talarico told a Black Democratic Caucus meeting at the Texas Democratic Party’s convention in June that the party had a troubling history of taking Black voters for granted. "I'm committing to you here that we will be putting resources where our mouth is, and we're going to be reaching out to these voters across the state so that we can win this race in November." Talarico said.

Talarico announced a $25 million investment in Black voter outreach during an event in Houston. He has engaged in various campaign activities across the state. James Talarico delivered the commencement address at Paul Quinn College.

James Talarico joined Democratic nominee Letitia Plummer for a campaign stop in Harris County. James Talarico participated in a block walk in DeSoto with Damarcus Offord, candidate for Dallas County clerk.

Some local leaders have questioned Talarico’s outreach efforts. State Representative Jolanda Jones accused James Talarico of being unwilling to reach out to her directly and have a substantive conversation about earning the community’s support. State Representative Barbara Gervin-Hawkins stated that James Talarico held a 75-minute Zoom call with Black elected officials, including Jolanda Jones, last month.

Talarico emphasized a positive agenda in his campaigning. "I don't want any Texan to vote for me just because they don't like Ken Paxton. I want people to be excited about what we're trying to do in this movement." he said.

Other polls have shown similar competitiveness. A New York Times/Siena poll of the Texas contest fielded in June found the overall result tied at 47%. That poll found that 80% of likely Black voters would vote for James Talarico. A Texas Politics Project poll in June found that 67% of Black voters surveyed supported James Talarico.

The Cook Political Report rates the Texas U.S. Senate race as Lean Republican. In other statewide contests, the Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the governor’s race, 45% to 42%. Republicans led by single digits in all other statewide races in the Texas Southern University poll.

Financial support for Talarico includes contributions from Democratic infrastructure groups. Luke Warford is a founding partner of Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund. Simone Coxe is the largest donor to Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund. Simone Coxe has given $500,000 to a pro-Talarico super PAC this cycle.

Early voting for the election opens on October 19. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll surveyed 1,048 likely voters between July 15 and July 17 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The Fox News poll surveyed 1,006 registered voters from July 23 to July 27 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Texas Southern University poll of Black voters was conducted starting July 27 and ended on a Sunday. The Texas Southern University poll of Black voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Respondents to the Texas Southern University poll of Black voters had voted in at least one election since the November 2022 midterms. The Texas Southern University poll of the likely statewide electorate had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. The Texas Southern University poll of the likely statewide electorate was in the field through a Thursday.

Why It Matters

The narrow statewide margin between James Talarico and Ken Paxton means that the 7% of Black voters who say they are less likely to vote due to primary outcomes could determine the election result. With Black voters supporting Talarico by wide margins in multiple surveys, any depression in turnout within this demographic shifts the balance in a race where undecided voters and independents remain pivotal. The data shows how internal party dynamics from the primary cycle directly impact general election viability in a tightly contested Senate bid.