Former Israel Navy commander Eliezer “Chaney” Marom stated on July 22, 2026, that Iran was very close to acquiring a nuclear weapon when the war began. He asserted that only a change in regime could prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb in the future.

Marom, who holds the rank of V.-Adm. (ret.), said that intelligence agencies, including Israeli and American agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency, assessed that Iran was weeks away from a nuclear weapon at the onset of hostilities. He added that Israel significantly disrupted Iran's nuclear program during the conflict.

Despite the disruption, he said Iran's motivation to pursue nuclear weapons has increased following the war. He recalled the assessment that Iranian leadership concluded that if they had a nuclear weapon, the war's outcome would have been different. He stated that producing a nuclear bomb is a complex and difficult undertaking, but suggested that Tehran remains committed to the goal.

Marom provided specific details regarding Iran's current nuclear material stockpiles. He stated that Iran has tons of uranium enriched to 5% and 20%, as well as 440 kg enriched to 60%. The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Iran possesses over 900 pounds (approximately 408 kg) of highly enriched uranium, a figure cited in a July 2026 report by the U.S. Department of Defense.

He also noted the challenges associated with tracking Iran's nuclear efforts. He stated that Iran's weaponization group is very difficult to track. This assessment comes as reports indicate that Iran transferred thousands of centrifuges to a fortified site near Natanz known as Pickaxe Mountain.

Describing the new facility, Marom said the Pickaxe Mountain site is excavated in rocky terrain dozens of meters underground. He said that granite is a hard mineral and almost impossible to penetrate with current American bombs at a depth of more than 100 meters underground. Consequently, he said the United States probably does not have the capability to penetrate the Pickaxe Mountain facility.

Marom drew on his own military experience to illustrate the difficulty of attacking such targets. He said that he visited a similar deep underground facility in another country during his military service.