Across all scenarios, the Hormuz-related crisis could leave between 8 million and 19 million additional people undernourished in 2030 compared with the trajectory expected before the conflict. In the most pessimistic scenario, the report projects 522 million people will be undernourished in 2030, compared to a pre-conflict baseline of 503 million. The projected increase in chronic hunger is driven by 10 million additional people in Asia and 8 million additional people in Africa.

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 report was published jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Health Organization, the United Nations Children's Fund, the World Food Programme, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development. Máximo Torero Cullen is the chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

The Hormuz-related crisis erodes a part of the progress that would otherwise have occurred in reducing global hunger, Cullen said. The extreme poverty line is $3PPP per person. So it’s higher, he added.

Global hunger declined for a third consecutive year in 2025. An estimated 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, representing 7.8 percent of the global population. The global hunger rate in 2025 was down from 8.1 percent in 2024 and 8.6 percent in 2022. The number of people facing hunger in 2025 was 14 million fewer than in 2024 and 43 million fewer than in 2022.

Africa is home to the highest number of hungry people for the first time, surpassing Asia. In 2025, an estimated 309 million people in Africa were undernourished. In 2025, an estimated 32 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean were undernourished. The prevalence of hunger in Africa fell from 20.3 percent in 2024 to 20.0 percent in 2025.

In 2025, 66.6 percent of the population in Africa was unable to afford a healthy diet. In 2025, 1.03 billion people in Africa, or nearly two-thirds of the population, were unable to afford a healthy diet. In 2025, 1.4 billion people in Asia, or 29 percent of its population, were unable to afford a healthy diet. In 2025, about 172 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean, or 26 percent of the population, were unable to afford a healthy diet.

In 2025, roughly 2.1 billion people, or 25.8 percent of the global population, experienced moderate or severe food insecurity. In 2025, 56.6 percent of the population in Africa faced moderate or severe food insecurity. In 2025, 22.9 percent of the population in Latin America and the Caribbean faced moderate or severe food insecurity.

Adult obesity rose from 12.1 percent in 2012 to 16.2 percent in 2024. It’s extremely urgent. Obesity [among adults] is growing at a very steep level, so we need to now work intensively on trying to minimise those risks and those hidden costs that that increase in obesity will bring, Cullen said. The Global Report on Food Crises 2026 estimated that about 1.4 million people worldwide are facing catastrophic hunger.

Peter Alexander is a senior lecturer in global food security at the University of Edinburgh. "Supply and demand would tell you that if there is less supply entering the market for food commodities, then we’re going to see higher food prices," Alexander said. "It sort of doesn’t really matter where the shortfall occurs. The price gets transmitted everywhere," he said.

"When you’re not able to afford a sufficient nutritious diet because it’s become more expensive, then that’s why you end up having those negative consequences in the poorer regions of the world," Alexander said. In a March analysis, the World Food Programme projected that up to 45 million more people could be pushed into acute food insecurity by mid-2026 if the conflict persisted and oil stayed above $100 a barrel. "Depending on the length of the impact of the crisis on food inflation, which is driven by higher energy and fertilizer prices, we simulate that between 510 and 520 million people may still be facing hunger in 2030," he said.

The report documents a reversal of recent progress in reducing global hunger, with Africa surpassing Asia as the region with the highest number of undernourished people for the first time. The projections indicate that the Iran war and associated Hormuz-related crisis could add up to 19 million people to the ranks of the chronically hungry by 2030, driven by energy and fertilizer shocks that increase food costs globally.

Rising costs of healthy diets affect billions, with 2.69 billion people unable to afford nutritious food in 2025. Adult obesity continues to rise alongside hunger, reflecting complex food security challenges. The findings show how geopolitical conflicts transmit economic shocks through global supply chains, affecting affordability and access in poorer regions regardless of where the initial shortfall occurs.