LAS VEGAS — The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released new 24-month projections Wednesday showing Lake Mead is expected to drop to 1,035.86 feet in November and to 1,009.69 feet by June 2028. The forecasts signal continued severe drought conditions across the Colorado River basin and set the stage for reduced water allocations to Arizona and Nevada in the coming years.

Lake Mead's water level stood at 1,042.52 feet at noon on the Friday prior to the release of the new federal projections. The reservoir is currently at 27% capacity. For reference, Lake Mead's surface sits at 1,229 feet when the reservoir is at full pool. The projected level of 1,009.69 feet in June 2028 represents a drop of nearly 33 feet from current levels over the next two years.

Under the 'Probable Minimum' projections included in the same study, Lake Mead would drop below 1,000 feet by June 2028. Some scientists say the 'Probable Minimum' projection has been a more accurate reflection of actual reality during the drought that began in 2000. Scientists state that climate change has reduced the amount of water in the Colorado River basin by about 20%. Water shortage levels that determine Colorado River allocations are based on Lake Mead's level, and every foot of decline narrows the margin available to the millions of people and farms that depend on the river.

Even under the most optimistic forecasts, Arizona and Nevada will receive less water in 2027. The federal government is expected to establish new rules regarding river water allocations that will take effect in 2027. Current rules for Colorado River water allocations expire at the end of the year. Decisions regarding Colorado River allocations are based on projections released in August that look ahead at the lake's projected level at the end of the year.

The Interior Department and the Bureau of Reclamation are shaping future agreements on how to manage the Colorado River after the seven states in the Colorado River basin failed to come to a consensus on managing the river. The Colorado River supplies water to 40 million people across the region.

Southern Nevada Water Authority officials state they are not worried about the water supply to Las Vegas. Nevada is using far less than its Colorado River water allocation despite continuing growth in the Las Vegas valley. About 90% of the Las Vegas valley's water comes from Lake Mead, with the remaining 10% from wells.

Total consumptive use of Colorado River water in Nevada is estimated to be 198,001 acre-feet in 2026. Nevada's allocation under current water shortage conditions is 287,000 acre-feet.

An acre-foot is equal to 325,851 gallons. Lake Powell remains under its own set of operational pressures. Lake Powell is currently at 24% capacity and an elevation of 3,524.03 feet. The federal government has established a target level of 3,525 feet for Lake Powell to protect Glen Canyon Dam's ability to produce hydroelectricity.

The projections highlight the scale of the water supply challenge facing the Colorado River basin, which serves 40 million people across seven states. With Lake Mead at just 27% capacity and scientists linking a 20% reduction in basin water to climate change, the gap between supply and demand continues to widen as federal rules governing allocations approach expiration. The inability of the seven basin states to reach a consensus has placed the Interior Department and the Bureau of Reclamation at the center of future agreement negotiations, while states like Nevada face the dual reality of continued population growth and shrinking allocations.