Emarketer estimates that OpenAI’s advertising business will fall short of the company’s five-year revenue forecast by 90%. The research firm projects the AI company will generate less than $1 billion in ad revenue this year and only $5.41 billion by 2030, drastically below OpenAI’s internal targets.

OpenAI has projected $2.5 billion in advertising revenue for the current year and $100 billion by 2030. The company began testing its advertising platform in February, marking its initial push into monetizing its AI products through ads.

According to Emarketer data, the entire category of standalone chatbots—including OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google AI Mode, and Amazon Alexa for Shopping—is expected to generate less than $1 billion in advertising revenue in the current year. The same forecast estimates the segment will reach $5.41 billion in annual ad revenue by 2030.

Why It Matters

OpenAI, an American artificial intelligence research organization headquartered in San Francisco, released ChatGPT in November 2022 and has since sought new revenue streams beyond its core API and enterprise services. The stark gap between its $100 billion advertising goal and Emarketer’s $5.41 billion industry-wide projection for all major chatbots suggests significant challenges in scaling ad-based monetization in the AI sector.