JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he does not know whether the war with Iran will be a tipping point that pushes the U.S. into a recession. "I tell people anything that happens is a straw on the camel's back. So maybe one day the straw's gonna cause that tipping point and push us through a recession. Hopefully not stagflation," he said.

"The economy is one big, complex beast, and even AI can't figure it out," Dimon said. He described the war as a couple straws on that camel's back.

Other economists expressed less concern about recession risks. "There are reasons to be concerned, but there aren't clear signs that we're headed for a recession," said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors.

"There are no recession signals flashing, consumers are still spending, and layoffs aren't broad-based," said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY. "The risk and macro impact depend on the duration and the severity of the shock," she said.

Dimon cited Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and its nuclear program to argue that Iran was an imminent threat. "What's more important for the future of the world is that this war successfully conclude. The sooner it gets properly resolved, the better," he said.

"It was very unfortunate that high gas prices would cause hardship for many Americans," Dimon said. The Strait of Hormuz is a key transit route for 20% of the world's oil supplies.

The February jobs report showed a surprise decline in employment. Real personal income excluding government transfers was higher in January than in the same month a year earlier. Manufacturing activity increased recently.

The U.S. has not experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction since 2020. The National Bureau of Economic Research makes U.S. recession determinations by reviewing data from federal statistical agencies and waiting until there is sufficient data. The bureau gives the most weight to real personal income outside taxes and federal payments like SNAP and to nonfarm payroll employment when determining recessions.