Bernstein adjusted its 2026 gold price target to $4,533 an ounce and set a second-half 2026 outlook of $4,375 an ounce on July 10, 2026. Gold is trading in the early $4,100s per ounce.

The firm's economists do not expect a higher Fed funds rate over the next 12 months. They expect the Federal Reserve to implement no rate hikes or only one or two hikes during that period. Earlier public reports from Bernstein set its 2026 gold view at $4,180 in January and $4,800 in February.

Gold's price fell from $4,650 an ounce to around $4,000 during the second quarter of 2026. Real rates moved from 2% in early April to 2.28% in late June. Over the past year, gold has increased by 23%, though its 30-day performance shows a decline of roughly 1%.

Minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting indicated differing views among policymakers regarding inflation concerns. Half of the 18 Federal Reserve policymakers who submitted projections supported raising rates by year-end, while the other half favored holding steady or cutting rates. The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 3.6% at its June meeting. Markets lifted the implied probability of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike to nearly 87%.

The World Gold Council's 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves survey shows that 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months. Additionally, 45% of central banks expect to increase their own gold holdings.