The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil demand is set to decline for the first time since 2020. The agency forecasts a decrease of 1 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2026.

The IEA noted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted oil and gas exports through the Persian Gulf. The agency's forecast assumes a ceasefire and the gradual reopening of the strait. "While the global oil market balance looks set to swing back to surplus towards the end of the year, the forecast hinges on the assumption that tanker flows through the Strait will gradually recover, allowing producers to restart fields and refiners in the Middle East and elsewhere to resume product shipments," the agency said.

U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire for a third consecutive day on Thursday. Iran targeted several oil and gas tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. The U.S. military launched retaliatory strikes against Iran following the targeting of tankers. The U.S. military stated on Thursday that its forces have struck more than 170 targets in Iran since hostilities reignited, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along the country's coastline.

Iranian officials stated that recent U.S. strikes have killed at least 14 people and injured approximately 78 people in Iran. An Iranian official accused the United States of targeting an area near an Iranian nuclear power plant. Video footage verified by the New York Times showed a railway bridge near the city of Agh Qala was hit.

Iran fired at U.S. targets in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Tehran claimed to have launched ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, a Jordanian military facility. Kuwait's authorities stated that at least one person has been injured due to falling debris in recent days.

Toril Bosoni, head of oil and markets at the IEA, said, "There will not be a 'swift or linear' recovery as the IEA expects a 'very uncertain and unstable situation' in the region." She added, "But with significant growth from other producers, and with demand levels lower than we were expecting before the war, we could return to a surplus through the end of the year and into next year." Bosoni also stated, "This would provide welcome relief to the market and allow countries to rebuild their inventories."

Global benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery decreased to $76.25 per barrel on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were $72.09 per barrel on Friday.