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A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper analyzed approximately 1.6 million EMS incidents citywide.
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The study was authored by six economists, including Brad Humphreys of West Virginia University.
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New York City's congestion pricing toll took effect on January 5, 2025.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
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The study found total EMS travel time inside the congestion relief zone decreased by 63 to 70 seconds after the toll took effect.
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The decrease in EMS travel time represented a reduction of approximately 5% to 6%.
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The study measured impact by comparing ambulance runs on either side of 60th Street.
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"Our research design is sort of spatial. We match EMT trips on either side of 60th, above and below, in and out of the congestion zone, because they should be really similar in terms of other characteristics of whatever’s going on with those emergency calls."
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Travel time to the incident location decreased by 7 to 9 seconds.
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Transport time from the scene to the hospital decreased by 54 to 59 seconds.
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"There is economic research that shows that even shaving one minute off an EMT trip for severe cases can generate huge economic benefits, because it’s a life or death situation. If you’ve got somebody who’s had a stroke or a heart attack, the value of that is tremendous."
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A 2013 study by economist Elizabeth Wilde found that each additional minute of EMS response time raises the risk of 90-day mortality by roughly one percentage point.
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The 2013 study indicated an 8% to 17% relative increase in mortality risk depending on the time horizon.
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"Future work should seek to quantify these downstream health effects directly."
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The study found no displacement effect on EMT calls north of 60th Street.
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"We don’t find any displacement effect. We don’t find that those EMT calls slowed down north of 60th, or anywhere. Basically people just stop driving. They just stop driving in general."
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Data from NYC street cameras analyzed by machine learning showed pedestrian counts increased by approximately 14% near the boundary.
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Data from NYC street cameras showed bicycle counts increased by nearly 20% near the boundary.
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Data from NYC street cameras showed a 21% drop in passenger vehicles near the boundary.
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Data from NYC street cameras showed an 18% drop in trucks near the boundary.
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"We don’t sell that hard in the paper, but that’s another positive externality—people were using bikes more, probably because it’s safer to ride in the congestion zone."
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"Increased foot traffic should be associated with increased commercial activity," Humphreys said, adding "that’s a future research topic."
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The New York state governor’s office released data showing an increase in foot traffic from 2024 on the one-year anniversary of congestion pricing.
Source: New York state governor’s office
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The state data showed a 6% increase in sales tax receipts associated with the increase in foot traffic.
Source: New York state governor’s office
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In March 2025, the FDNY began requiring ambulances to transport patients to the nearest hospital rather than a preferred one.
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"A couple of our co-authors live in New York City… and we did some Google News searching and identified that policy as an important confounder. Somebody would undoubtedly say, ‘You’re getting these declines because of that policy change, not the congestion price.’ We felt it was important to address that."
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"Lower traffic means less air pollution, and that has huge health consequences."
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"There’s evidence that noise pollution reduces property values."
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"Nobody’s ever done a full cost-benefit analysis of it, but our results suggest that we probably should… all they see is, ‘I’m getting charged to drive into Manhattan.’ They don’t see you’re getting all these benefits. It’s not just the charge."
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"Any increase in the time from the incident to the hospital saves lives and generates lots of cost savings."
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"Congestion pricing wasn't introduced to make it easier for ambulances to get from incident scenes to hospitals, but they do."
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Sam Schwartz is a traffic analyst who has advocated for congestion pricing for decades.
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A report issued by Sam Schwartz's firm three months before congestion pricing launched found ambulance response times had increased nearly three minutes between 2014 and 2024.
Sam Schwartz, traffic analyst
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"In cardiac arrest, every minute reduces the chance of survival by 7 to 10%."
Sam Schwartz, traffic analyst
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"So the fact that a minute is saved means quite a few people will survive and will survive with better outcomes."
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Michael Greco is the president of Local 2507, the union representing the FDNY's EMTs and paramedics.
Michael Greco, president of Local 2507
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"On the ground, we are not seeing a 60 -to 90-second reduction, especially when, for the past, you know, two years, our response time is creeping up every day."
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Greco stated the report was a good starting point but requested more peer-reviewed research that accounts for the variety of traffic patterns in Manhattan.
Brad Humphreys, professor of economics at West Virginia University
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"You're gonna have improved health outcomes. In a city like New York, we've got a large number of EMT calls. So those savings add up over the many, many thousands of calls that occur in New York City, and that’s an important unexamined aspect of congestion pricing policies."
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