The United States is leading a diplomatic initiative for a reunification plan in Libya, with Massad Boulos serving as US special envoy during Donald Trump's second term. The US plan proposes encouraging US companies to invest in Libya's oilfields if rival factions form a unified government. The rival factions agreed on a unified national budget for 2026 in April.

Libya is politically and militarily divided between the United Nations-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and an eastern-based administration aligned with Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA). The US has proposed a power-sharing arrangement where Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity, would lead the government and Saddam Haftar would serve as president. Saddam Haftar is the son of Khalifa Haftar and serves as the LNA's army chief.

Tim Eaton, a senior research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, stated, "The US is leading a negotiation to create a unified government among Libya's rival elites." Abdul Hamid Dbeibah said, "While the US public messaging is that this is about creating an inclusive government, their efforts really hinge on getting the Haftar and Dbeibah families to formally agree to be part of the same government." Boulos, who is President Trump's top adviser on Arab, Middle Eastern, and African affairs, detailed aspects of the US mediation plan in an interview with the Financial Times in June.

The GNU holds international recognition needed for signing oil deals, while the LNA controls the oilfields and terminals. In January, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah announced that Libya produced 1.37 million barrels of oil per day in the previous year. Eaton said, "For special adviser Massad Boulos, Libya appears to offer a theatre in which political stability could provide a springboard for increased US commercial engagement in Libya's oil sector." Eaton added, "If done right, there is a win-win here, as long-term investment from major international oil companies would benefit Libya."

Eaton also said, "However, the question is whether Boulos's plan would actually provide the stability needed or whether it will simply entrench deeply flawed powerbrokers." A proposed Libya reunification plan outlines a 36-month transitional power-sharing arrangement under a body called the Government of National Consensus and Presidential Council. Saddam Haftar met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, D.C.

Why It Matters

This diplomatic push by the United States aims to resolve the ongoing political division in Libya by unifying its rival factions under a power-sharing agreement. The proposed plan links political stability with potential US investment in Libya's oil sector, which holds Africa's largest proven oil reserves. The engagement follows a NATO-led air campaign that began in March 2011 and the capture and killing of Muammar Gaddafi in October 2011, events that preceded the current political fragmentation.

The current situation presents a challenge where the GNU holds international recognition but the LNA controls key oil infrastructure. The US initiative seeks to bridge this gap through a unified government, potentially leading to increased oil production and international trade, as Libya's oil grades are compatible with European refineries and can reach Italy within two days. The agreement on a unified national budget for 2026 suggests potential for future cooperation between the factions.