U.S. — JPMorgan established its gold price targets at $4,300 per ounce for the third quarter of 2026 and $4,500 per ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026. The firm attributed these targets to weaker demand from key gold-buying sectors and downside risks associated with potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

JPMorgan stated that demand from these sectors is not as strong as previously anticipated. The firm also indicated that forecast risks could skew to the downside if robust U.S. economic data prompts the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its meeting on June 17, 2026. Data from the June 17 meeting showed that nine out of 19 Federal Reserve policymakers projected a rate hike in 2026, a change from March 2026 when zero policymakers projected a rate hike for that year. Six of those nine policymakers anticipated more than one quarter-point increase.

Economic data for May 2026 indicated that the Federal Reserve's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.1% year over year, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 3.4%. Following the June 2026 jobs report, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 for the month. Additionally, U.S. nonfarm payrolls for April and May 2026 were revised downward by a combined 74,000.

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September 2026 decreased to approximately 54% after the June 2026 jobs report, down from 66% prior to the report. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation risks and expectations have eased in recent weeks. Warsh reiterated the Federal Reserve's commitment to its 2% inflation target. JPMorgan continues to maintain a long-term bull case for gold based on central-bank buying and physical demand expected in 2027. Spot gold prices rose by over 2% for the week ending July 5, 2026.