China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) increased to 50.3 in June 2026, indicating expansion after registering 50.0 in May. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The new export orders sub-index also returned to expansion, reaching 50.1 in June from 48.6 in May. China's manufacturing output gauge stood at 51.4 in June, and the total new orders gauge was 51.2. The high-tech equipment manufacturing PMI registered 53.5 in June, and the consumer goods segment PMI was 50.2.

In the first five months of 2026, profits at Chinese manufacturers of computers, communication equipment, and other electronic equipment increased by 103.9% year-on-year. Profits across all Chinese industrial enterprises above the designated size grew 18.8% during the same January-to-May period. However, investment in Chinese manufacturing decreased in May on a year-to-date basis.

China's exports to the U.S. grew 35.4% in May, following an 11.3% growth in April. Exports to the U.S. in May reached nearly 90% of their 2024 levels. For comparison, exports to the U.S. in May 2025 were 70% of their 2024 levels. Bank of America Global Research upgraded its forecast for China's export growth this year to 15%.

Dan Wang, China director of consultancy Eurasia Group, commented on the export situation. "Exports to meet international demand for chips and other AI-related products, as well as front-loading to get ahead of new U.S. Section 301 tariffs due late July and improved domestic demand due to lower upstream costs underpinned the improvement," Wang said. The U.S. Section 122 levy of 10% on goods from most major trading partners is set to expire on July 24.

The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.2 in June, an increase from 50.1 in May. China's factory gate prices index was 48.2 in June, down from 51.9 in May. Retail sales in China fell in May.

Beijing is targeting a GDP growth rate of between 4.5% and 5.0% for 2026, after recording a 5% GDP growth rate in 2025. Goldman Sachs revised its third-quarter GDP growth forecast for China to 5% from 4.5% on a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis. Goldman Sachs also predicts China's second-quarter GDP growth will be 3.5%.

China Beige Book, an independent survey of Chinese businesses, surveyed 1,321 businesses between June 1 and June 22. "The second quarter is ending on a more positive note than it began, but this performance will need to repeat itself in July and August for there to be legitimate cause for celebration," China Beige Book stated. Helen Qiao, a China economist at Bank of America Global Research, said, "The hope of rebalancing is dashing."