U.S. — Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, stated that large-scale deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics is "pretty much the only thing that's going to solve the U.S. debt crisis." The statement came as the U.S. national debt stood at $39.5 trillion.

A study authored by Ben Harris, Neil R. Mehrotra, and William Overcash for the Brookings Institution suggests that AI-driven economic growth is unlikely to bridge the U.S. fiscal deficit gap, even under optimistic projections. The Brookings team found that mitigating factors could reduce AI's potential to improve budget deficits by half in the most favorable scenarios and by two-thirds in the least favorable scenarios.

The report notes that efficiencies in healthcare, potentially driven by AI, could lead to longer lifespans and increased reliance on Social Security support. Additionally, labor market shifts resulting from AI might lead to higher unemployment and increased demand for income support payments. The authors suggested that a changing composition of national income could shift the tax base from highly taxed labor income to less-taxed noncorporate capital and corporate profits. Increased demands for investment may also raise the neutral rate of interest, which would increase equilibrium interest rates and boost interest expenditures.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates Medicare outlays for 2026 at $674 billion and Medicaid outlays at $472 billion. The Brookings report also states that defense spending is likely to increase as nations seek to gain an advantage in the AI arms race.

In a traditional productivity shock scenario outlined by the report, primary deficits would turn negative, and the annual deficit would decrease by over $2 trillion. In such a scenario, the deficit as a share of GDP would decline by almost five percentage points. BNP Paribas estimated U.S. GDP growth for all of 2026 to be 2.6%, an increase from a previous estimate of 2.1%. A June 2026 study from the Centre for Economic Policy Research found that the implied measure of AI-attributed labor productivity growth for 2026 is 1.8%, with gains in high-skill services and finance exceeding 2%.