Russia's armed forces aim to capture the remaining 20 percent of Ukraine's partially occupied eastern Donetsk region by the end of 2026. Kyiv stated that Russia failed to meet 14 previous deadlines for capturing the region. The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian territorial gains collapsed in 2026 while casualties rose. Russian forces seized 622 square kilometers of Ukraine in the first six months of 2026, a decrease from the 2,190 square kilometers seized in the first six months of 2025. Russia's rate of advance in the first half of 2026 was calculated at 1.03 square kilometers per day, compared to 16.6 square kilometers per day in the first six months of 2025. In the first half of 2026, Russia's net gain, accounting for infiltrations and Ukrainian counter-advances, was 97 square kilometers.

Ukraine's military estimated Russia suffered 39,490 casualties in June 2026. The Center for Strategic International Studies estimated 1.4 million Russian casualties since the war began as of July 1, 2026. Russian casualties per square kilometer taken rose to 1,298 in June 2026, an increase from 68 per square kilometer taken in June 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a 40-day campaign of mid and long-range strikes against Russia on June 25, 2026. He attributed Ukraine's success in 2026 to decisions made in 2025 to increase drone production and develop domestic long-range missiles. According to the Institute for the Study of War, mid-range strikes against Russian logistics increased from 210 in May 2026 to 303 in June 2026. In the past week, Ukraine's long-range strikes damaged Russia's Ufa, Nizhegorodsky, Slavyansk, and Yaroslavl oil refineries. On July 1-2, 2026, Ukraine destroyed 12 electricity substations in southern Crimea. Fuel shortages were reported in most Russian regions in June 2026. Vladyslav Vlasyuk, Ukraine's Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy, stated that Russian oil revenues fell by 30 percent from January to May 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he declined two proposals from Kyiv, one for a ceasefire on long-range strikes and another for a ceasefire in specific northern and southern Ukrainian regions. President Zelenskyy said, "If Putin wants to send another million of his soldiers to keep fighting against this wall, then these million Russians, who have not yet been mobilised into the Russian army and are queuing for gasoline , should think about what awaits them next."