A Ballotpedia analysis released on June 30, 2026, identified 13 state legislative supermajorities as highly exposed to breaking in the 2026 elections. The organization defines this exposure as needing fewer than 5% of seats to change party control to break a supermajority.

The analysis indicated that in eight states holding legislative elections in 2026, less than 5% of seats would need to shift parties to break an existing supermajority. Republicans are defending eight exposed supermajorities, while Democrats are defending five. Currently, 27 state legislative supermajorities exist in the United States, with 19 held by Republicans and eight by Democrats. Twenty-three states do not have a legislative supermajority.

Among the Republican supermajorities rated as highly exposed are those in Florida, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Carolina. Florida Republicans hold a 27-12-1 supermajority in the Senate; a one-seat loss would place the party below the 27-seat threshold needed to override a governor's vetoes. In Kansas, Republicans hold an 88-37 supermajority in the House, where a five-seat loss would put them below the 84-seat two-thirds threshold. Missouri Republicans hold a 24-10 supermajority in the Senate and a 111-52 supermajority in the House; a two-seat loss in the Senate or a three-seat loss in the House would break their respective two-thirds thresholds. Nebraska Republicans have a 33-14-2 supermajority in the Senate, which would fall below the three-fifths threshold of 30 seats with a four-seat loss. South Carolina Republicans hold an 88-36 supermajority in the House, and a six-seat loss would bring them below the 83-seat two-thirds threshold.

The Democratic supermajorities in California, Connecticut, and Delaware were also rated highly exposed to breaking. California Democrats maintain a 30-10 supermajority in the Senate, and a four-seat loss would reduce them below the 27-seat two-thirds threshold. Connecticut Democrats hold a 25-11 supermajority in the Senate and a 102-49 supermajority in the House; for either chamber, a two-seat loss would cause the party to fall below the two-thirds threshold. Delaware Democrats hold a 15-6 supermajority in the Senate and a 27-14 supermajority in the House, where a three-seat loss in either chamber would bring them below the three-fifths threshold.

In five additional states, less than 15% of seats up for election would need to change party control to break a supermajority. These include the Democratic supermajorities in Illinois and Maryland, and the Republican supermajorities in Ohio, Oklahoma, and Utah.