U.S. — A working paper published in May 2026 by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that among Americans ages 51 to 75, leaving employment led to cognitive decline. The paper, coauthored by University of California at Irvine economists, also found that consistent employment resulted in sustained cognition for individuals within the same age group.

The study observed substantial declines in cognitive scores following periods of meaningful negative employment shifts. Researchers from UC Irvine sought to establish a causational relationship between early retirement and cognitive decline. They utilized data from 40,000 participants from the University of Michigan's Health and Retirement Study, which they overlaid with County Business Patterns data generated by the U.S. Census.

David Neumark, a UC Irvine professor of economics and study coauthor, commented on the implications of the findings. "This would be yet another reason to say, 'We should really think about the potential consequences of a really large-scale decline in employment,'" Neumark said. He added, "We have some influence on the margins about both people losing jobs and things we might do to help them find reemployment if they did." An April 2025 analysis indicated that approximately 35% of workers unemployed for more than 24 weeks are over the age of 55.

Why It Matters

The findings regarding employment and cognitive decline occur as economic analyses estimate large costs associated with cognitive issues. An analysis from the University of Southern California estimated that Alzheimer's disease and other dementias cost the U.S. economy approximately $781 billion in 2025. This estimate included lost earnings from patients and caretakers unable to work. In 2025, the Alzheimer's Association projected direct health and long-term-care costs for Alzheimer's and other dementias to be between $384 billion and $409 billion for 2025–2026. The association also estimated an additional $413.5 billion in unpaid caregiving for 2025.

Looking back, a 2016 study predicted that annual GDP growth would slow by 1.2% between 2016 and 2026 due to an aging population. This slowdown included a component where fewer older people in the workforce created less output, accounting for about one-third of the predicted GDP growth slowdown. The 2016 study also indicated that most of the impact of an aging population on GDP was a result of older workers being less productive.