The Guardian Essential poll indicates a decline in primary vote support for One Nation, registering at 26% among Australian voters. This figure marks a decrease from 28% in the previous month's poll.

The poll, which surveyed 1,017 voters in the week prior to its publication, also found Labor's primary vote at 30% and the Coalition's at 23%. Among respondents, 29% stated they would definitely vote for One Nation in the next election, with an additional 23% open to voting for the party.

Voter concern regarding One Nation extended to several policy and leadership aspects. A total of 51% of respondents expressed concern that One Nation lacked a team of skilled individuals to govern Australia. Additionally, 50% indicated concern over One Nation's support from Gina Rinehart, and 45% worried that the party could foster division among Australians.

The poll gathered opinions on various policy proposals. 26% of respondents supported stopping abortion after 20 weeks. Conversely, 29% believed abortion should be legal in all cases, and 42% thought it should be legal in most cases. A total of 72% stated abortion should be legal in some or all cases, while 28% indicated it should be illegal in some or all cases. These figures represent a 12-point decrease since November 2024 for those supporting abortion in all cases, and a 7-point decrease in total for those supporting its legality in some or all cases. Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, stated, "This month's poll suggested One Nation's poll may be plateauing."

Regarding other proposals, 20% of respondents supported ending multiculturalism, and 18% backed calls to review workplace laws to grant employers more power. Furthermore, 18% supported Australia's withdrawal from the United Nations, and 25% supported shifting focus from renewables to fossil fuels. Support for privatizing the ABC stood at 15%, while 11% supported shutting down SBS.

The poll also showed that 27% of respondents would definitely vote for Labor, and 23% were open to doing so. For the Liberal Party, 18% would definitely vote, with 32% open to it. Eight percent would definitely vote for the Nationals, and 36% were open to supporting them. Anthony Albanese's approval rating was 38%, with a disapproval rating of 51%, resulting in a net approval of minus 13. Angus Taylor's approval rating was 36%, with a disapproval rating of 37%, leaving his net approval at minus one.

Why It Matters

The poll data provides an overview of current political sentiment in Australia, showing shifts in voter support for One Nation and other major parties. The decline in One Nation's primary vote, coupled with concerns among a portion of the electorate regarding the party's leadership capabilities and specific policy stances, indicates potential challenges for its future growth. Furthermore, the poll's insights into public opinion on issues such as abortion legislation, environmental policy, and media privatization, alongside approval ratings for key political figures, contribute to an understanding of the broader political landscape and specific areas of public consensus or division within Australia.