DR CONGO — The World Health Organization (WHO) projects more than 8,000 cases and 1,400 deaths from the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) by mid-September. The organization also indicated a 70 percent chance of the Ebola virus spreading to South Sudan.

Since the outbreak was announced in mid-May, the DRC has confirmed over 1,100 cases of Ebola. At least 291 people have died from the disease in the country. The head of the Africa Centres For Disease Control stated that almost 300 individuals who tested positive for Ebola are currently unaccounted for.

Under a worst-case scenario, WHO projections suggest the number of Ebola cases could exceed 60,000 by September. Over one million people in the affected region are inaccessible to health workers due to ongoing conflict in eastern Congo.

This is the 17th Ebola outbreak to affect the DRC, and it is the worst on record in the country. Efforts by Congolese authorities and those in neighboring countries are working to slow transmission, according to the WHO. The outbreak has largely been confined to the DRC so far.

Why It Matters

The projections from the World Health Organization suggest a large increase in Ebola cases and deaths if the current trajectory continues. The inability of health workers to reach over a million people due to conflict presents a challenge to containment efforts and allows the virus to potentially spread unchecked in those areas. The risk of the virus spreading to neighboring South Sudan poses a regional public health concern.