Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence100%
U.S. Special Operations forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3.
Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence100%
Nicolás Maduro was taken to the United States to face drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence100%
U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged in April with using classified intelligence to place bets on the Venezuela mission.
Relevance: primary · Type: background
Confidence100%
Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of the Venezuela mission.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence100%
The Justice Department alleges Gannon Ken Van Dyke made a series of wagers totaling roughly $34,000.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence100%
The Justice Department alleges Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed half a dozen wagers the day before the raid.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence100%
Gannon Ken Van Dyke netted more than $400,000 from the wagers.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence100%
According to the indictment, Gannon Ken Van Dyke immediately withdrew his profit.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence100%
According to the indictment, Gannon Ken Van Dyke tried to delete his betting account on Polymarket.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
Gannon Ken Van Dyke is a 38-year-old Army master sergeant.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence100%
Gannon Ken Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence100%
Polymarket says it cooperated with law enforcement.
Rob Schwartz, private lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"If the allegations are true, this is one of the worst betrayals of trust in this area that I can remember and possibly ever."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
Rob Schwartz worked for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission until last year.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is a federal agency policing fraud and insider trading.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
Rob Schwartz is now a private lawyer in Washington.
Rob Schwartz, private lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"Classified intelligence that he knew about because he helped plan and to execute the mission."
Rob Schwartz, private lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"There is nothing to compare that to."
Rob Schwartz, private lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"If you are a corporate executive, and you're privy to non public-- business information, you go trade on that, that's insider trading."
Rob Schwartz, private lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"Everybody knows that."
Rob Schwartz, private lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"But the same thing exists in prediction markets, where this soldier is alleged to have traded."
Rob Schwartz, private lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"This is a new kind of insider trading."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
Prediction markets, including Polymarket, offer wagers on the likelihood of future events.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
In the United States, it is prohibited to make military bets on platforms like Polymarket.
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, data analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"It's alarming to see a culture around betting on war."
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence100%
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch and her team at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective examined Polymarket bets on military outcomes.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence100%
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch looked specifically at long-shot wagers with less than 35% odds.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence100%
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch stated that long-shot military bets won more than they lost.
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, data analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch described the pattern as "systemic insider-trading."
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, data analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch stated that military bets have a 52% success rate.
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, data analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch stated that sports wagering has a 7% success rate.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
Nicolas Vaiman's data analytics firm, Bubblemaps, is based in Paris.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
Bubblemaps creates visualizations of bets on Polymarket to spot clusters of suspect traders.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
The head of investigations at Bubblemaps goes by the online handle "Deebs."
Nicolas Vaiman, data analytics firm owner
Relevance: primary · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Nicolas Vaiman stated that nine Polymarket accounts all connected made collectively $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations.
Nicolas Vaiman, data analytics firm owner
Relevance: primary · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Nicolas Vaiman stated that the linked accounts had a 98% win rate.
Nicolas Vaiman, data analytics firm owner
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
Nicolas Vaiman stated that luck alone cannot explain the 98% win rate.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence100%
The linked accounts made dozens of winning bets on the specific dates of pivotal moments in the war with Iran.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
David Kovel is a New York lawyer representing victims of fraud on commodities markets.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
David Kovel is a former commodities trader.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence100%
In 2021, David Kovel secured the largest whistleblower award for commodities market manipulation in the United States.
David Kovel, lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"I'm highly suspicious at this point."
David Kovel, lawyer
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence100%
"Any trader right now is highly suspicious."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence100%
More than a billion dollars has been staked online on military decisions and outcomes this year.
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