MANIPUR — The Indian government has extended ceasefire agreements with various rebel groups in Manipur without resolving the underlying conflicts in the region.

The conflict in Manipur, which began three years ago, primarily involves the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities. It has resulted in over 250 deaths and displaced more than 60,000 people. Militant outfits from the Meitei, Kuki-Zo, and Naga communities participate in the conflict, and the strife has expanded to include Naga communities against the Kuki.

An overwhelming majority of militant groups in the region maintain ceasefire agreements with the Indian government. These ceasefires are intended as a preliminary step toward agreements where militants would surrender their weapons and integrate into the mainstream. Insurgency-related incidents in the Northeast have seen a sharp decline over the past decade.

Despite the ceasefires, rebel groups in Manipur, Nagaland, and Assam have reportedly violated ground rules. These violations include imposing taxes, engaging in business activities, and carrying weapons outside designated camps. Illicit trade with Myanmar, involving commodities such as timber and narcotics, is present in Manipur, and rebel outfits compete for control of these trade routes.

The tactic of prolonging ceasefires has yielded results in states such as Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Mizoram. The pro-talks faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) signed a ceasefire agreement with the government in 2011. An agreement with this ULFA faction was finalized at the end of 2023, though the government rejected most of its key demands.

Kuki-Zo groups in Manipur are pursuing the creation of a union territory that would encompass all areas inhabited by their communities. Other communities oppose this demand. Home Minister Amit Shah stated that the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act would be revoked from large parts of the Northeast next year.

The National Socialist Council of Nagalim – Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) demands symbols of sovereignty for Nagaland, including a separate flag and constitution. The Indian government has not accepted this demand and previously rejected the NSCN-IM's demand for a Greater Nagalim. Nagaland has a homogenous population with a majority of Nagas. Manipur has a heterogeneous population, with the majority Meitei in Imphal Valley and Kuki-Zo and Naga tribes in the hill districts.

Twenty-five Kuki-Zo outfits signed the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with the government in 2008. Two Naga outfits, including the NSCN-IM, are active in Manipur. Meitei separatist groups and two new militias are active in Imphal Valley. More than 10,000 overground militants from all communities are estimated to be active in Manipur. Manipur has the highest number of overground armed outfits among all states in India.