BEIJING — A study published in Environmental Science and Ecotechnology found that shocks starting in a single country or at one stage of production can spread across borders and life cycle stages, leading to widespread failures throughout the cobalt supply network. The study found that risks in the cobalt supply chain are concentrated in upstream stages but build most intensely at refining and manufacturing bottlenecks.

Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Peking University, and the University of Southern Denmark examined global cobalt flows from 1998 to 2019. The researchers built a multilayer supply chain network and applied an iterative shock propagation model to analyze how disruptions move across countries and through six life cycle stages including mining, refining, manufacturing, use, and recycling. The researchers combined material flow analysis with a multilayer shock propagation model in their study.

The research team mapped a network linking 230 countries across six interconnected production stages. The network combined trade-linked material flow data with a dynamic shock model. The framework allowed simulation of how supply shortages or demand drops in one part of the cobalt supply system could trigger cascading failures elsewhere.

The analysis shows that disruptions travel through both direct and indirect pathways, crossing trade links and domestic production chains. Shock propagation along direct and indirect routes can extend disruptions, trigger multistage knock-on effects, and lead to sudden nonlinear breakdowns. Shock propagation pathways can move horizontally across countries and vertically across production stages.

Mining disruptions in highly concentrated upstream regions are common sources of risk in the cobalt supply chain. The most severe impacts in the cobalt supply chain occur at refining and manufacturing bridges, where dense connections amplify failures. The avalanche network of potential failures is about four times denser than the physical trade network.

China and the United States show high systemic fragility in the cobalt supply system, meaning disruptions in these regions can trigger widespread failures. The study suggests that traditional country-level risk assessments underestimate the vulnerability of the cobalt supply system. The study's authors conclude that coordinated system-level strategies are needed to improve the resilience of the cobalt supply chain.

Electric vehicle and energy storage system expansion globally has been accompanied by an increase in demand for cobalt. Cobalt plays a central role in lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles. The study references export restrictions, trade disputes, and pandemic-related disruptions as examples of localized shocks that have spread through global production systems.