MOSCÚ — Military recruitment in Russia declined by 20 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Western intelligence estimates indicate that nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have died in the conflict.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said, "Hay señales de que este incentivo puede que ya no esté funcionando de manera efectiva, y que Rusia ha comenzado a perder más tropas de las que puede reclutar." He added, "La mano de obra es un recurso más escaso que el capital físico o las finanzas. También es más difícil de aumentar." Maria Snegovaya, a Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, "Este año en particular vemos que los costos económicos finalmente están imponiendo decisiones difíciles al Kremlin."

Russian recruitment advertisements offer incentives. These include signing bonuses equivalent to over four times the average annual salary, debt relief up to $140,000 U.S., accelerated citizenship, and military honors. Despite these offers, hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have emigrated to avoid military conscription.

Military personnel compensation and recruitment costs represent tens of billions of dollars annually, accounting for approximately 9.5 percent of the federal budget and 2 percent of the gross domestic product. Economic analysts project that Russia is experiencing economic stagnation, with some estimates indicating a recession.

The official annual inflation rate reached 5.52 percent as of June 2026. Food prices in Russia have increased by more than 18 percent since January 2024. Wage growth in Russia has not offset the cumulative effect of persistent price increases. The government increased the value-added sales tax by two percentage points. Russian defense industry factories are operating continuously on a 24-hour schedule. Tens of thousands of former prisoners have been deployed by Russia to frontline positions in Ukraine. Ukrainian strikes on energy and logistics infrastructure have caused fuel shortages in several regions and operational delays at Russian airports.