STRAIT OF HORMUZ — Verisk Maplecroft released the Predictive War Index to clients in late May 2026. The Predictive War Index uses a machine learning algorithm to forecast the probability of war in a country over a 12-month period.

The Predictive War Index was trained on political, economic, and social datasets from 1995 to 2022. Back-testing by Verisk indicates the model would have calculated a 66% probability of war in Iran approximately 1.5 months after an early January evaluation date. "Instead of looking back, insurers and investors increasingly want to know what might happen and where," said Sam Haynes, head of data and analytics at Verisk.

Verisk launched a predictive model in October 2023 that correctly forecast six out of seven government collapses. The October 2023 model predicted the removal of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in 2024 and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January 2026. "There were economic issues combined with a past history of political instability that increased the risk," said Chris Boylan, data science expert at Verisk.

The RAND Corporation operates an artificial intelligence system that converts geopolitical scenarios into probability estimates. In mid-May, the RAND system calculated a 20% probability that Iran's government would not remain in power through 2027. "The results are designed not just to describe what might happen, but to show policymakers how specific actions — sanctions pressure, diplomatic engagement, or support for civil society — would shift those probabilities in practice," said Anthony Vassalo, director of the RAND Forecasting Initiative.

Changes in risk assessment have also been observed in the insurance sector. Lloyds of London quoted marine war risk insurance premiums in the Strait of Hormuz at up to 1% of a vessel's value per voyage after February 28, 2026. Moody's reported that prior marine war risk insurance premiums in the region were less than one percent per voyage. "Modeling experts are now looking at conflict scenarios as they would a terrorist attack, where relatively low‑cost acts can generate disproportionate economic losses," said Gordon Woo, catastrophe risk specialist at Moody's. "The events unfolding are consistent with our supercycle geopolitics thesis, where increased risk drivers are breaking through global guardrails and causing a higher number of geopolitical shocks," said Tina Fordham, co-founder of Fordham Global Foresight.