WASHINGTON, D.C. — Political advertising spending for the 2026 midterm election cycle is projected to reach $11.6 billion, according to AdImpact. This projection represents an increase of $795 million from an earlier estimate.
The projected spending exceeds the 2022 midterm election cycle's $8.9 billion by 30 percent, according to AdImpact data. The firm estimates that political advertising during the 2024 presidential election totaled $11.2 billion. Broadcast television advertising spend is projected to reach $5.6 billion for the 2026 cycle, comprising approximately half of the total political advertising expenditure for the cycle, driven largely by state-level contests.
Connected television advertising spend is projected to reach $2.6 billion for the 2026 cycle, while digital advertising spend is projected to reach $1.68 billion. Campaigns are projected to spend $1.6 billion on digital platforms including Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X. Cable television advertising spend is projected to reach $1.4 billion.
Political advertising expenditures reached $4 billion through June 1, marking a 46 percent increase compared to the same timeframe in the 2024 presidential election cycle, according to the firm. "Much of that surge is driven by a concentrated set of high-profile, high-dollar contests that materialized earlier in the cycle than is typical," according to an AdImpact report.
California, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio are expected to have the highest total political advertising expenditures for the 2026 cycle. Michigan, Ohio, and Texas will hold U.S. Senate elections in 2026, with Texas also holding a U.S. Senate primary. California will hold a gubernatorial election in 2026. U.S. Senate races are projected to account for nearly $3.4 billion in political advertising expenditures. California, New Jersey, and Georgia are expected to host three of the four highest-cost gubernatorial elections on record in 2026, according to the firm. Down-ballot political advertising expenditures for the 2026 cycle are projected to exceed the 2022 record of $3.2 billion.
October advertising expenditures are projected to represent 28 to 36 percent of total spending for the 2026 election cycle. Advertising expenditures between August and November are projected to represent 58 to 67 percent of total spending. Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers of the U.S. Congress. In the U.S. Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats hold 45 seats, and two independent senators caucus with the Democratic Party.
No independent assessment was available for this report.